**SpaceX's confidential SEC filing for a June 2026 IPO, revealed April 1, drives trader consensus at 56% implied probability for a closing market cap over $2 trillion, surpassing the reported $1.75 trillion target amid Starlink's mega-constellation expansion to millions of subscribers and Starship's reusable launch vehicle milestones.** Recent private valuations exceeding $1.2 trillion, fueled by xAI merger synergies blending satellite broadband with artificial intelligence infrastructure, have shifted sentiment upward from lower brackets like 1.6T–1.8T (11.9%). Traders eye early June roadshow and May S-1 filing as key catalysts, though regulatory hurdles for orbital refueling and market volatility could temper the premium. No IPO before 2028 odds languish at 3.5%, reflecting firm listing momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.0T+ 57%
1.8T–2.0T 13%
1.6T–1.8T 11.9%
1.4T–1.6T 5.8%
$901,520 Vol.
$901,520 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
No IPO before 2028
3%
<1.0T
5%
1.0T–1.2T
3%
1.2T–1.4T
5%
1.4T–1.6T
6%
1.6T–1.8T
12%
1.8T–2.0T
13%
2.0T+
57%
2.0T+ 57%
1.8T–2.0T 13%
1.6T–1.8T 11.9%
1.4T–1.6T 5.8%
$901,520 Vol.
$901,520 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
No IPO before 2028
$184,241 Vol.
3%
<1.0T
$72,435 Vol.
5%
1.0T–1.2T
$51,959 Vol.
3%
1.2T–1.4T
$68,485 Vol.
5%
1.4T–1.6T
$113,550 Vol.
6%
1.6T–1.8T
$116,344 Vol.
12%
1.8T–2.0T
$99,451 Vol.
13%
2.0T+
$195,054 Vol.
57%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.**SpaceX's confidential SEC filing for a June 2026 IPO, revealed April 1, drives trader consensus at 56% implied probability for a closing market cap over $2 trillion, surpassing the reported $1.75 trillion target amid Starlink's mega-constellation expansion to millions of subscribers and Starship's reusable launch vehicle milestones.** Recent private valuations exceeding $1.2 trillion, fueled by xAI merger synergies blending satellite broadband with artificial intelligence infrastructure, have shifted sentiment upward from lower brackets like 1.6T–1.8T (11.9%). Traders eye early June roadshow and May S-1 filing as key catalysts, though regulatory hurdles for orbital refueling and market volatility could temper the premium. No IPO before 2028 odds languish at 3.5%, reflecting firm listing momentum.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 1:58 PM ET
Volume
$901,520End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 1:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.**SpaceX's confidential SEC filing for a June 2026 IPO, revealed April 1, drives trader consensus at 56% implied probability for a closing market cap over $2 trillion, surpassing the reported $1.75 trillion target amid Starlink's mega-constellation expansion to millions of subscribers and Starship's reusable launch vehicle milestones.** Recent private valuations exceeding $1.2 trillion, fueled by xAI merger synergies blending satellite broadband with artificial intelligence infrastructure, have shifted sentiment upward from lower brackets like 1.6T–1.8T (11.9%). Traders eye early June roadshow and May S-1 filing as key catalysts, though regulatory hurdles for orbital refueling and market volatility could temper the premium. No IPO before 2028 odds languish at 3.5%, reflecting firm listing momentum.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$901,520End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 1:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**SpaceX's confidential SEC filing for a June 2026 IPO, revealed April 1, drives trader consensus at 56% implied probability for a closing market cap over $2 trillion, surpassing the reported $1.75 trillion target amid Starlink's mega-constellation expansion to millions of subscribers and Starship's reusable launch vehicle milestones.** Recent private valuations exceeding $1.2 trillion, fueled by xAI merger synergies blending satellite broadband with artificial intelligence infrastructure, have shifted sentiment upward from lower brackets like 1.6T–1.8T (11.9%). Traders eye early June roadshow and May S-1 filing as key catalysts, though regulatory hurdles for orbital refueling and market volatility could temper the premium. No IPO before 2028 odds languish at 3.5%, reflecting firm listing momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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