**Ongoing U.S.-mediated trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States have produced limited results since early 2026, with progress confined mainly to prisoner-of-war exchanges and temporary holiday pauses rather than a comprehensive ceasefire.** Multiple rounds in Geneva and elsewhere addressed military monitoring mechanisms and front-line issues, yet core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and the status of occupied regions remain unresolved. Recent verified developments include a large-scale POW swap on June 5, 2026, and short ceasefires around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day in May, which both sides later accused each other of violating through continued strikes. U.S. pressure for a deal has not overcome Moscow’s insistence on retaining seized land or Kyiv’s demands for credible long-term protections. With diplomacy described as stalled or on pause amid active fighting, trader-implied probabilities for an official ceasefire agreement by late June 2026 reflect the absence of a breakthrough in the immediate term.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?
¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?
$3,717,520 Vol.
31 dic 2026
30 de junio
4%
31 de octubre
30%
31 de diciembre
47%
$3,717,520 Vol.
30 de junio
$883,547 Vol.
4%
31 de octubre
$239,555 Vol.
30%
31 de diciembre
$1,777,213 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing U.S.-mediated trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States have produced limited results since early 2026, with progress confined mainly to prisoner-of-war exchanges and temporary holiday pauses rather than a comprehensive ceasefire.** Multiple rounds in Geneva and elsewhere addressed military monitoring mechanisms and front-line issues, yet core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and the status of occupied regions remain unresolved. Recent verified developments include a large-scale POW swap on June 5, 2026, and short ceasefires around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day in May, which both sides later accused each other of violating through continued strikes. U.S. pressure for a deal has not overcome Moscow’s insistence on retaining seized land or Kyiv’s demands for credible long-term protections. With diplomacy described as stalled or on pause amid active fighting, trader-implied probabilities for an official ceasefire agreement by late June 2026 reflect the absence of a breakthrough in the immediate term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volumen
$3,717,520Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing U.S.-mediated trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States have produced limited results since early 2026, with progress confined mainly to prisoner-of-war exchanges and temporary holiday pauses rather than a comprehensive ceasefire.** Multiple rounds in Geneva and elsewhere addressed military monitoring mechanisms and front-line issues, yet core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and the status of occupied regions remain unresolved. Recent verified developments include a large-scale POW swap on June 5, 2026, and short ceasefires around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day in May, which both sides later accused each other of violating through continued strikes. U.S. pressure for a deal has not overcome Moscow’s insistence on retaining seized land or Kyiv’s demands for credible long-term protections. With diplomacy described as stalled or on pause amid active fighting, trader-implied probabilities for an official ceasefire agreement by late June 2026 reflect the absence of a breakthrough in the immediate term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,717,520Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing U.S.-mediated trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States have produced limited results since early 2026, with progress confined mainly to prisoner-of-war exchanges and temporary holiday pauses rather than a comprehensive ceasefire.** Multiple rounds in Geneva and elsewhere addressed military monitoring mechanisms and front-line issues, yet core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and the status of occupied regions remain unresolved. Recent verified developments include a large-scale POW swap on June 5, 2026, and short ceasefires around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day in May, which both sides later accused each other of violating through continued strikes. U.S. pressure for a deal has not overcome Moscow’s insistence on retaining seized land or Kyiv’s demands for credible long-term protections. With diplomacy described as stalled or on pause amid active fighting, trader-implied probabilities for an official ceasefire agreement by late June 2026 reflect the absence of a breakthrough in the immediate term.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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