Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.2% for a North Korea missile test or launch by April 30, reflecting no detections today amid vigilant monitoring by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, Japan's Self-Defense Forces, and US Indo-Pacific Command. The absence of satellite indications at key sites like Sinpo, lack of KCNA announcements, and no flight paths tracked in the Sea of Japan or East Sea solidify high confidence as the UTC deadline nears. North Korea's last verified launches—short-range ballistic missiles with cluster munitions on April 24—remain over a week old, with no escalation signals since. Realistic shifts could stem from late-reported covert tests, post-deadline state media claims, or intelligence revelations of undetected activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNorth Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?
$8,761 Vol.
$8,761 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$8,761 Vol.
$8,761 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.2% for a North Korea missile test or launch by April 30, reflecting no detections today amid vigilant monitoring by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, Japan's Self-Defense Forces, and US Indo-Pacific Command. The absence of satellite indications at key sites like Sinpo, lack of KCNA announcements, and no flight paths tracked in the Sea of Japan or East Sea solidify high confidence as the UTC deadline nears. North Korea's last verified launches—short-range ballistic missiles with cluster munitions on April 24—remain over a week old, with no escalation signals since. Realistic shifts could stem from late-reported covert tests, post-deadline state media claims, or intelligence revelations of undetected activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Market Opened: Apr 20, 2026, 12:32 PM ET
Volume
$8,761End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 12:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.2% for a North Korea missile test or launch by April 30, reflecting no detections today amid vigilant monitoring by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, Japan's Self-Defense Forces, and US Indo-Pacific Command. The absence of satellite indications at key sites like Sinpo, lack of KCNA announcements, and no flight paths tracked in the Sea of Japan or East Sea solidify high confidence as the UTC deadline nears. North Korea's last verified launches—short-range ballistic missiles with cluster munitions on April 24—remain over a week old, with no escalation signals since. Realistic shifts could stem from late-reported covert tests, post-deadline state media claims, or intelligence revelations of undetected activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$8,761End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 12:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.2% for a North Korea missile test or launch by April 30, reflecting no detections today amid vigilant monitoring by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, Japan's Self-Defense Forces, and US Indo-Pacific Command. The absence of satellite indications at key sites like Sinpo, lack of KCNA announcements, and no flight paths tracked in the Sea of Japan or East Sea solidify high confidence as the UTC deadline nears. North Korea's last verified launches—short-range ballistic missiles with cluster munitions on April 24—remain over a week old, with no escalation signals since. Realistic shifts could stem from late-reported covert tests, post-deadline state media claims, or intelligence revelations of undetected activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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