The Federal Reserve held its federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting—the third consecutive pause—despite March CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024, and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains with unemployment at 4.3%. Chair Powell affirmed the policy's alignment with dual-mandate goals amid highest dissent since 1992, as traders weigh reaccelerating prices against softening job growth signals. Polymarket sentiment reflects aggregated capital pricing a probable 25 basis point cut for the September 15-16 meeting with press conference, contingent on April CPI (May 12 release), June/July FOMC outcomes, and PCE trends versus March dot plot's low-3% path by 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
10%
25 bps decrease
20%
No change
73%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
3%
$653 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
$63 Vol.
10%
25 bps decrease
$27 Vol.
20%
No change
$392 Vol.
73%
25 bps increase
$188 Vol.
7%
50+ bps increase
$79 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Federal Reserve held its federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting—the third consecutive pause—despite March CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024, and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains with unemployment at 4.3%. Chair Powell affirmed the policy's alignment with dual-mandate goals amid highest dissent since 1992, as traders weigh reaccelerating prices against softening job growth signals. Polymarket sentiment reflects aggregated capital pricing a probable 25 basis point cut for the September 15-16 meeting with press conference, contingent on April CPI (May 12 release), June/July FOMC outcomes, and PCE trends versus March dot plot's low-3% path by 2027.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Volume
$653End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Federal Reserve held its federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting—the third consecutive pause—despite March CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024, and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains with unemployment at 4.3%. Chair Powell affirmed the policy's alignment with dual-mandate goals amid highest dissent since 1992, as traders weigh reaccelerating prices against softening job growth signals. Polymarket sentiment reflects aggregated capital pricing a probable 25 basis point cut for the September 15-16 meeting with press conference, contingent on April CPI (May 12 release), June/July FOMC outcomes, and PCE trends versus March dot plot's low-3% path by 2027.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$653End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve held its federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting—the third consecutive pause—despite March CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024, and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains with unemployment at 4.3%. Chair Powell affirmed the policy's alignment with dual-mandate goals amid highest dissent since 1992, as traders weigh reaccelerating prices against softening job growth signals. Polymarket sentiment reflects aggregated capital pricing a probable 25 basis point cut for the September 15-16 meeting with press conference, contingent on April CPI (May 12 release), June/July FOMC outcomes, and PCE trends versus March dot plot's low-3% path by 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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