Ursula von der Leyen’s re-election by the European Parliament in July 2024 with an absolute majority secured her a full five-year mandate running through the 2029 European elections. Multiple motions of censure tabled by opposition groups in 2025 and early 2026, including one in January, have all failed by wide margins well short of the required threshold. She continues to exercise core presidential functions, including recent summits, competitiveness initiatives, and diplomatic engagements into mid-2026, with no verified signals of voluntary resignation or successful parliamentary removal. These institutional and procedural realities underpin trader consensus that an exit this calendar year remains unlikely.