China's National Bureau of Statistics reported 5.0% year-on-year GDP growth for Q1 2026 on April 15, exceeding forecasts of 4.8% and hitting the upper end of the government's 4.5–5.0% annual target set during March's Two Sessions, driven by resilient exports and industrial output amid ongoing property sector weakness. Trader consensus at 77.5% for 4.0–5.0% growth reflects this alignment with official projections and analyst estimates around 4.6–4.7% from Reuters polls and Vanguard, tempered by deepening real estate slump—property prices at a 20-year low—and global risks like Middle East tensions disrupting supply chains. Weaker retail sales signal consumption challenges, with fiscal stimulus held steady, positioning moderation below Q1 pace as the baseline while 5.0–6.0% odds at 18.9% capture upside from potential policy easing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.0–5.0% 78%
5.0–6.0% 19.3%
3.0–4.0% 2.8%
<1.0% <1%
$459,944 Vol.
$459,944 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
3%
4.0–5.0%
78%
5.0–6.0%
19%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 78%
5.0–6.0% 19.3%
3.0–4.0% 2.8%
<1.0% <1%
$459,944 Vol.
$459,944 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$39,968 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$38,658 Vol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$18,104 Vol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$26,936 Vol.
3%
4.0–5.0%
$113,431 Vol.
78%
5.0–6.0%
$43,742 Vol.
19%
6.0-7.0%
$35,741 Vol.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$43,269 Vol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$18,029 Vol.
<1%
9.0%+
$82,126 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's National Bureau of Statistics reported 5.0% year-on-year GDP growth for Q1 2026 on April 15, exceeding forecasts of 4.8% and hitting the upper end of the government's 4.5–5.0% annual target set during March's Two Sessions, driven by resilient exports and industrial output amid ongoing property sector weakness. Trader consensus at 77.5% for 4.0–5.0% growth reflects this alignment with official projections and analyst estimates around 4.6–4.7% from Reuters polls and Vanguard, tempered by deepening real estate slump—property prices at a 20-year low—and global risks like Middle East tensions disrupting supply chains. Weaker retail sales signal consumption challenges, with fiscal stimulus held steady, positioning moderation below Q1 pace as the baseline while 5.0–6.0% odds at 18.9% capture upside from potential policy easing.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$459,944End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's National Bureau of Statistics reported 5.0% year-on-year GDP growth for Q1 2026 on April 15, exceeding forecasts of 4.8% and hitting the upper end of the government's 4.5–5.0% annual target set during March's Two Sessions, driven by resilient exports and industrial output amid ongoing property sector weakness. Trader consensus at 77.5% for 4.0–5.0% growth reflects this alignment with official projections and analyst estimates around 4.6–4.7% from Reuters polls and Vanguard, tempered by deepening real estate slump—property prices at a 20-year low—and global risks like Middle East tensions disrupting supply chains. Weaker retail sales signal consumption challenges, with fiscal stimulus held steady, positioning moderation below Q1 pace as the baseline while 5.0–6.0% odds at 18.9% capture upside from potential policy easing.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$459,944End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's National Bureau of Statistics reported 5.0% year-on-year GDP growth for Q1 2026 on April 15, exceeding forecasts of 4.8% and hitting the upper end of the government's 4.5–5.0% annual target set during March's Two Sessions, driven by resilient exports and industrial output amid ongoing property sector weakness. Trader consensus at 77.5% for 4.0–5.0% growth reflects this alignment with official projections and analyst estimates around 4.6–4.7% from Reuters polls and Vanguard, tempered by deepening real estate slump—property prices at a 20-year low—and global risks like Middle East tensions disrupting supply chains. Weaker retail sales signal consumption challenges, with fiscal stimulus held steady, positioning moderation below Q1 pace as the baseline while 5.0–6.0% odds at 18.9% capture upside from potential policy easing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions