Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, grounded in United States Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible. Earthquake magnitude, measured on the moment magnitude scale, scales with fault rupture length; Earth's longest subduction zone faults, like those off Chile or Sumatra, max out around 9.5, as seen in the 1960 Valdivia quake—the largest recorded. No magnitude 9.0+ events have occurred since 2011, and 2025-2026 USGS data shows only routine seismic activity up to magnitude 7.4, with no precursors to mega-events. While unprecedented full-plate slip could theoretically challenge this, seismic monitoring confirms no such buildup, sustaining high conviction amid inherent tectonic uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$589,737 Vol.
$589,737 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$589,737 Vol.
$589,737 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, grounded in United States Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible. Earthquake magnitude, measured on the moment magnitude scale, scales with fault rupture length; Earth's longest subduction zone faults, like those off Chile or Sumatra, max out around 9.5, as seen in the 1960 Valdivia quake—the largest recorded. No magnitude 9.0+ events have occurred since 2011, and 2025-2026 USGS data shows only routine seismic activity up to magnitude 7.4, with no precursors to mega-events. While unprecedented full-plate slip could theoretically challenge this, seismic monitoring confirms no such buildup, sustaining high conviction amid inherent tectonic uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$589,737End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, grounded in United States Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible. Earthquake magnitude, measured on the moment magnitude scale, scales with fault rupture length; Earth's longest subduction zone faults, like those off Chile or Sumatra, max out around 9.5, as seen in the 1960 Valdivia quake—the largest recorded. No magnitude 9.0+ events have occurred since 2011, and 2025-2026 USGS data shows only routine seismic activity up to magnitude 7.4, with no precursors to mega-events. While unprecedented full-plate slip could theoretically challenge this, seismic monitoring confirms no such buildup, sustaining high conviction amid inherent tectonic uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$589,737End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, grounded in United States Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible. Earthquake magnitude, measured on the moment magnitude scale, scales with fault rupture length; Earth's longest subduction zone faults, like those off Chile or Sumatra, max out around 9.5, as seen in the 1960 Valdivia quake—the largest recorded. No magnitude 9.0+ events have occurred since 2011, and 2025-2026 USGS data shows only routine seismic activity up to magnitude 7.4, with no precursors to mega-events. While unprecedented full-plate slip could theoretically challenge this, seismic monitoring confirms no such buildup, sustaining high conviction amid inherent tectonic uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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