US-Iran hostilities escalated on February 28, 2026, when coordinated US and Israeli strikes targeted Iranian military sites under Operation Epic Fury, but Congress has not issued a formal war declaration—required for market resolution—relying instead on presidential authority under the War Powers Resolution. The 60-day limit expired May 1 without extension, as the Trump administration asserted hostilities ended via an April 8 Pakistan-mediated ceasefire, though a US naval blockade persists amid stalled talks over the Strait of Hormuz reopening and Iran's nuclear program. Congressional debates highlight divisions, with no votes advancing authorization; historical precedent shows no declarations since World War II. Traders weigh negotiation breakthroughs or renewed strikes against low escalation odds, eyeing upcoming White House reviews of Iranian proposals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$7,413,454 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
8%
$7,413,454 Vol.
December 31
$440,820 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran hostilities escalated on February 28, 2026, when coordinated US and Israeli strikes targeted Iranian military sites under Operation Epic Fury, but Congress has not issued a formal war declaration—required for market resolution—relying instead on presidential authority under the War Powers Resolution. The 60-day limit expired May 1 without extension, as the Trump administration asserted hostilities ended via an April 8 Pakistan-mediated ceasefire, though a US naval blockade persists amid stalled talks over the Strait of Hormuz reopening and Iran's nuclear program. Congressional debates highlight divisions, with no votes advancing authorization; historical precedent shows no declarations since World War II. Traders weigh negotiation breakthroughs or renewed strikes against low escalation odds, eyeing upcoming White House reviews of Iranian proposals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Volume
$7,413,454End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran hostilities escalated on February 28, 2026, when coordinated US and Israeli strikes targeted Iranian military sites under Operation Epic Fury, but Congress has not issued a formal war declaration—required for market resolution—relying instead on presidential authority under the War Powers Resolution. The 60-day limit expired May 1 without extension, as the Trump administration asserted hostilities ended via an April 8 Pakistan-mediated ceasefire, though a US naval blockade persists amid stalled talks over the Strait of Hormuz reopening and Iran's nuclear program. Congressional debates highlight divisions, with no votes advancing authorization; historical precedent shows no declarations since World War II. Traders weigh negotiation breakthroughs or renewed strikes against low escalation odds, eyeing upcoming White House reviews of Iranian proposals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,413,454End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran hostilities escalated on February 28, 2026, when coordinated US and Israeli strikes targeted Iranian military sites under Operation Epic Fury, but Congress has not issued a formal war declaration—required for market resolution—relying instead on presidential authority under the War Powers Resolution. The 60-day limit expired May 1 without extension, as the Trump administration asserted hostilities ended via an April 8 Pakistan-mediated ceasefire, though a US naval blockade persists amid stalled talks over the Strait of Hormuz reopening and Iran's nuclear program. Congressional debates highlight divisions, with no votes advancing authorization; historical precedent shows no declarations since World War II. Traders weigh negotiation breakthroughs or renewed strikes against low escalation odds, eyeing upcoming White House reviews of Iranian proposals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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