Trader consensus reflects a 94.5% implied probability against China launching a military invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by recent de-escalation signals and intelligence assessments showing no committed invasion timeline. A March US intelligence report concluded Chinese leaders lack plans for a 2027 assault, reinforced by April developments including Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun's Beijing visit, where Xi Jinping hosted discussions yielding resumed direct flights and aquaculture imports. Routine PLA activities in the Taiwan Strait persist without amphibious buildup or heightened drills, amid cross-strait diplomatic overtures via opposition channels. Beijing's reunification pressure favors coercion over costly invasion, bolstered by US deterrence and economic constraints, though major escalations like intensified military exercises could alter trader sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$465,173 Vol.
$465,173 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Sí
$465,173 Vol.
$465,173 Vol.
30 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 94.5% implied probability against China launching a military invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by recent de-escalation signals and intelligence assessments showing no committed invasion timeline. A March US intelligence report concluded Chinese leaders lack plans for a 2027 assault, reinforced by April developments including Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun's Beijing visit, where Xi Jinping hosted discussions yielding resumed direct flights and aquaculture imports. Routine PLA activities in the Taiwan Strait persist without amphibious buildup or heightened drills, amid cross-strait diplomatic overtures via opposition channels. Beijing's reunification pressure favors coercion over costly invasion, bolstered by US deterrence and economic constraints, though major escalations like intensified military exercises could alter trader sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volumen
$465,173Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 94.5% implied probability against China launching a military invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by recent de-escalation signals and intelligence assessments showing no committed invasion timeline. A March US intelligence report concluded Chinese leaders lack plans for a 2027 assault, reinforced by April developments including Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun's Beijing visit, where Xi Jinping hosted discussions yielding resumed direct flights and aquaculture imports. Routine PLA activities in the Taiwan Strait persist without amphibious buildup or heightened drills, amid cross-strait diplomatic overtures via opposition channels. Beijing's reunification pressure favors coercion over costly invasion, bolstered by US deterrence and economic constraints, though major escalations like intensified military exercises could alter trader sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$465,173Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 94.5% implied probability against China launching a military invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by recent de-escalation signals and intelligence assessments showing no committed invasion timeline. A March US intelligence report concluded Chinese leaders lack plans for a 2027 assault, reinforced by April developments including Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun's Beijing visit, where Xi Jinping hosted discussions yielding resumed direct flights and aquaculture imports. Routine PLA activities in the Taiwan Strait persist without amphibious buildup or heightened drills, amid cross-strait diplomatic overtures via opposition channels. Beijing's reunification pressure favors coercion over costly invasion, bolstered by US deterrence and economic constraints, though major escalations like intensified military exercises could alter trader sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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