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icon for ¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de junio?
Tech·IA

¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de junio?

icon for ¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de junio?
Tech·IA

¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de junio?

jun 30

sep 30

dic 31

jun 30

sep 30

dic 31

$14,380 Vol.

30 jun 2026
Polymarket

$14,380 Vol.

Polymarket

1510

$5,390 Vol.

63%

1520

$2,421 Vol.

22%

1530

$6,568 Vol.

15%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking model leads the Arena.ai Overall Text leaderboard at 1503 Elo as of April 30, 2026, with its predecessor Opus 4.6 Thinking close behind at 1502, underscoring the lab's dominance through advanced reasoning and agentic capabilities demonstrated in recent mid-April releases. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview trails at 1493, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 High sits at 1489 amid debates over benchmark divergence from real-world utility; Meta’s preliminary Muse Spark debuted at 1490, tightening the top 10 span to just 25 points. With two months to June 30, trader sentiment hinges on imminent catalysts like xAI’s Grok 4.3 now entering battle mode and potential OpenAI updates, against historical precedent of 5-10 Elo gains per frontier release amid compute scaling limits.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$14,380
Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking model leads the Arena.ai Overall Text leaderboard at 1503 Elo as of April 30, 2026, with its predecessor Opus 4.6 Thinking close behind at 1502, underscoring the lab's dominance through advanced reasoning and agentic capabilities demonstrated in recent mid-April releases. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview trails at 1493, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 High sits at 1489 amid debates over benchmark divergence from real-world utility; Meta’s preliminary Muse Spark debuted at 1490, tightening the top 10 span to just 25 points. With two months to June 30, trader sentiment hinges on imminent catalysts like xAI’s Grok 4.3 now entering battle mode and potential OpenAI updates, against historical precedent of 5-10 Elo gains per frontier release amid compute scaling limits.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$14,380
Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de junio?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "1510" con 63%, seguido de "1520" con 22%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 63¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 63% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de junio?" ha generado $14.4K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Apr 2, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de junio?", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de junio?" es "1510" con 63%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 63% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "1520" con 22%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará ___ Puntuación general de Arena antes del 30 de junio?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.