Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no Trump-Putin in-person meeting by June 30 (91%), reflecting the absence of any announced bilateral summit plans in the near term amid ongoing Ukraine war stalemate and Iran tensions. Recent U.S. invitation for Putin to attend the December G20 summit in Miami drew Kremlin ambiguity, with Trump expressing doubt over attendance, while diplomacy has proceeded via phone calls and envoy visits like Steve Witkoff's to Moscow—none signaling leaders' face-to-face before summer. The last summit, in Alaska August 2025, produced no ceasefire. Scenarios to challenge this include urgent Ukraine peace talks around Russia's May 9 Victory Day proposal or sudden escalation prompting ad-hoc negotiations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMarket hits a low of 0% as no meeting occurs and no new developments arise indicating a Trump-Putin meeting in Russia within the timeframe
Russia dips to 0%1%
Market hits a low of 0% as no meeting occurs and no new developments arise indicating a Trump-Putin meeting in Russia within the timeframe
Market uptick to 9% possibly linked to ongoing US-China communications and hopes for future meetings, but no concrete Trump-Putin meeting in China reported
China jumps to 9%7%
Market uptick to 9% possibly linked to ongoing US-China communications and hopes for future meetings, but no concrete Trump-Putin meeting in China reported
Consensus among credible outlets reports that Trump has shifted focus to domestic issues, with no indication of a renewed Trump‑Putin summit, cementing the low odds
Other dips to 1%1%
Consensus among credible outlets reports that Trump has shifted focus to domestic issues, with no indication of a renewed Trump‑Putin summit, cementing the low odds
Xi Jinping and Trump hold phone talks hours after Xi’s video call with Putin, discussing Taiwan, trade, and geopolitical flashpoints, but no in-person Trump-Putin meeting in China
China rises to 4%1%
Xi Jinping and Trump hold phone talks hours after Xi’s video call with Putin, discussing Taiwan, trade, and geopolitical flashpoints, but no in-person Trump-Putin meeting in China
No new summit date announced; analysts note the Alaska meeting in August produced no concessions, reinforcing belief that a second meeting is unlikely
No new summit date announced; analysts note the Alaska meeting in August produced no concessions, reinforcing belief that a second meeting is unlikely
Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner meet Putin in Moscow, sparking brief optimism about renewed talks but no Gulf meeting announced
Gulf country rises to 7%4%
Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner meet Putin in Moscow, sparking brief optimism about renewed talks but no Gulf meeting announced
News of a new US peace plan draft discussed with Russian envoy in Miami surfaces, but no progress toward a ceasefire or summit in an EU country materializes
Other EU country dips to 12%3%
News of a new US peace plan draft discussed with Russian envoy in Miami surfaces, but no progress toward a ceasefire or summit in an EU country materializes
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says Russia is ready to discuss summit preparations only “if and when the American colleagues return to their proposal,” signaling continued
Other rises to 5%2%
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says Russia is ready to discuss summit preparations only “if and when the American colleagues return to their proposal,” signaling continued deadlock
Chinese leader Xi Jinping meets Russian PM Mishustin in Beijing, reaffirming deep China-Russia partnership amid turbulent global conditions, further sidelining Trump-Putin talks
China rises to 2%1%
Chinese leader Xi Jinping meets Russian PM Mishustin in Beijing, reaffirming deep China-Russia partnership amid turbulent global conditions, further sidelining Trump-Putin talks
Russia seeks closer ties with China after Trump-Xi meeting, with Moscow uneasy about Trump’s constructive talks with Beijing and no Trump-Putin meeting
China dips to 1%4%
Russia seeks closer ties with China after Trump-Xi meeting, with Moscow uneasy about Trump’s constructive talks with Beijing and no Trump-Putin meeting
Reports confirm summit plans on hold after Moscow sends memo demanding major territorial concessions from Ukraine, ending hopes for a Budapest meeting
Other EU country drops to 15%12%
Reports confirm summit plans on hold after Moscow sends memo demanding major territorial concessions from Ukraine, ending hopes for a Budapest meeting
Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, agreeing to an economic truce and easing trade tensions, marking a pivot away from Russia talks
China jumps to 5%5%
Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, agreeing to an economic truce and easing trade tensions, marking a pivot away from Russia talks
Trump states he will not meet Putin until a deal on Ukraine is in place, effectively shelving the Budapest summit and reducing chances of a meeting in an EU country
Other EU country drops to 27%8%
Trump states he will not meet Putin until a deal on Ukraine is in place, effectively shelving the Budapest summit and reducing chances of a meeting in an EU country
Trump officially cancels meeting with Putin, citing frustration and unwillingness to have a "wasted meeting," shifting focus to China trade talks
China dips to 0%3%
Trump officially cancels meeting with Putin, citing frustration and unwillingness to have a "wasted meeting," shifting focus to China trade talks
Trump officially cancels the planned Budapest summit, citing stalled negotiations and poor timing, sharply reducing likelihood of a meeting in Russia
Russia dips to 2%1%
Trump officially cancels the planned Budapest summit, citing stalled negotiations and poor timing, sharply reducing likelihood of a meeting in Russia
Trump officially cancels planned summit with Putin citing stalled negotiations and poor timing, further reducing chances of Gulf meeting
Gulf country drops to 3%5%
Trump officially cancels planned summit with Putin citing stalled negotiations and poor timing, further reducing chances of Gulf meeting
Trump officially cancels the planned Budapest summit citing stalled negotiations and that the timing "didn’t feel right," confirming no near-term meeting in the U.S. and causing a
United States dips to 1%3%
Trump officially cancels the planned Budapest summit citing stalled negotiations and that the timing "didn’t feel right," confirming no near-term meeting in the U.S. and causing a sharp.
White House announces Trump-Putin second summit is off after Secretary Rubio's call with Lavrov, no immediate plans for Trump-Putin meeting
China plunges to 3%37%
White House announces Trump-Putin second summit is off after Secretary Rubio's call with Lavrov, no immediate plans for Trump-Putin meeting
White House and multiple sources confirm no immediate plans for Trump-Putin summit in Budapest or elsewhere, effectively shelving Gulf meeting possibilities
Gulf country drops to 8%5%
White House and multiple sources confirm no immediate plans for Trump-Putin summit in Budapest or elsewhere, effectively shelving Gulf meeting possibilities
White House official states there are no plans for a Trump-Putin meeting "in the immediate future," signaling a stall in summit plans and dampening market expectations for a U.S.
United States dips to 4%4%
White House official states there are no plans for a Trump-Putin meeting "in the immediate future," signaling a stall in summit plans and dampening market expectations for a U.S. meeting.
Russian Foreign Ministry announces constructive call between US Secretary Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov preparing for the summit, reinforcing Budapest as the meeting
Other EU country jumps to 49%7%
Russian Foreign Ministry announces constructive call between US Secretary Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov preparing for the summit, reinforcing Budapest as the meeting venue
Russian Foreign Ministry reports a "constructive" call between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov preparing for the summit, sustaining
Russia rises to 5%3%
Russian Foreign Ministry reports a "constructive" call between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov preparing for the summit, sustaining optimism
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hold a "constructive" call preparing for the summit, maintaining some optimism
No meeting by June 30 rises to 18%1%
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hold a "constructive" call preparing for the summit, maintaining some optimism
Reports emerge that Trump-Putin Budapest summit is uncertain and likely delayed amid stalled Ukraine ceasefire talks, dampening Gulf meeting prospects
Gulf country dips to 13%3%
Reports emerge that Trump-Putin Budapest summit is uncertain and likely delayed amid stalled Ukraine ceasefire talks, dampening Gulf meeting prospects
Reports emerge of Putin’s willingness to exchange Zaporizhzhia and Kherson for Donetsk, fueling speculation on summit prospects in Budapest
Other EU country drops to 42%9%
Reports emerge of Putin’s willingness to exchange Zaporizhzhia and Kherson for Donetsk, fueling speculation on summit prospects in Budapest
Reports emerge that Putin offered territorial concessions in Ukraine during the call, but skepticism grows about the feasibility of the summit
No meeting by June 30 rises to 17%3%
Reports emerge that Putin offered territorial concessions in Ukraine during the call, but skepticism grows about the feasibility of the summit
Trump publicly confirms the planned Budapest summit with Putin within two weeks, signaling progress in negotiations and boosting market confidence
Russia plunges to 2%15%
Trump publicly confirms the planned Budapest summit with Putin within two weeks, signaling progress in negotiations and boosting market confidence
Trump announces planned Trump-Putin summit in Budapest within two weeks after a lengthy phone call with Putin, raising hopes for a meeting in an EU country to discuss Ukraine
Other EU country plunges to 18%28%
Trump announces planned Trump-Putin summit in Budapest within two weeks after a lengthy phone call with Putin, raising hopes for a meeting in an EU country to discuss Ukraine peace talks
Trump announces planned summit with Putin in Budapest following a lengthy phone call, raising hopes for a new meeting outside Gulf states
Gulf country plunges to 16%30%
Trump announces planned summit with Putin in Budapest following a lengthy phone call, raising hopes for a new meeting outside Gulf states
Trump announces planned meeting with Putin in Budapest within two weeks after a two-hour phone call, raising hopes for a summit to discuss ending the Ukraine war
No meeting by June 30 plunges to 14%21%
Trump announces planned meeting with Putin in Budapest within two weeks after a two-hour phone call, raising hopes for a summit to discuss ending the Ukraine war
Trump announces plans to meet Putin in Budapest within two weeks to discuss ending the war in Ukraine after a productive two-hour phone call with Putin
Turkey plunges to 10%36%
Trump's announcement of a planned summit in Budapest raised hopes for a meeting, causing a sharp drop from 46% to 10% as the market shifted focus away from Turkey to Hungary.
Trump announces plans to meet Putin in Budapest to discuss ending the Ukraine war after a "very productive" call with Putin, raising hopes for a second summit
Russia plunges to 17%39%
Trump announces plans to meet Putin in Budapest to discuss ending the Ukraine war after a "very productive" call with Putin, raising hopes for a second summit
Trump and Putin hold summit in Anchorage, Alaska, marking their first in-person meeting since Trump’s 2025 inauguration;
United States plunges to 5%44%
the meeting included a handshake and photo op but no breakthrough agreement on Ukraine, setting initial market optimism for a U.S. meeting.
















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