**Verkhovna Rada's April 28 vote extended martial law and mobilization through August 2, 2026—the 19th such renewal since Russia's 2022 invasion—barring presidential or parliamentary elections under constitutional and statutory prohibitions.** Officials reiterated in March that fair voting demands a ceasefire plus six months' security, ruling out 2026 polls despite U.S. President Trump's demands for wartime elections tied to peace negotiations. With no recent de-escalation or lifting signals, trader sentiment hinges on diplomatic progress toward ceasefire, quarterly parliamentary extensions, and legal reforms for potential wartime voting, amid ongoing frontline fighting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLow‑point of 2 % reached after a series of legal setbacks and no legislative amendment to allow elections under martial law
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Low‑point of 2 % reached after a series of legal setbacks and no legislative amendment to allow elections under martial law
A senior U.S. official publicly states that the United States will not provide the security guarantees required for a 2025 Ukrainian election, cementing market belief that the
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%3%
A senior U.S. official publicly states that the United States will not provide the security guarantees required for a 2025 Ukrainian election, cementing market belief that the outcome will resolve “No”
Zelensky tells partners that “security guarantees” remain unmet and that any election would have to be postponed beyond 2025, sending the
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%11%
Zelensky tells partners that “security guarantees” remain unmet and that any election would have to be postponed beyond 2025, sending the
| Al Jazeera analysis states that even with a draft law, logistical constraints mean the earliest realistic election date would be March 2026, keeping “Yes” odds low but
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
| Al Jazeera analysis states that even with a draft law, logistical constraints mean the earliest realistic election date would be March 2026, keeping “Yes” odds low but stabilising them ||
Ukraine publicly refuses U.S. demands to hold presidential elections in 2026, confirming that no election will occur before June 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 7%4%
Ukraine publicly refuses U.S. demands to hold presidential elections in 2026, confirming that no election will occur before June 2026
Zelensky stresses need for rapid missile deliveries and notes inability of White House officials to travel, underscoring ongoing war pressures and postponing election timelines
June 30, 2026 dips to 11%1%
Zelensky stresses need for rapid missile deliveries and notes inability of White House officials to travel, underscoring ongoing war pressures and postponing election timelines
| Ukrainian Ministry of Justice publishes a legal opinion confirming that any election called before a formal lift of martial law would be unconstitutional, dampening market
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%5%
| Ukrainian Ministry of Justice publishes a legal opinion confirming that any election called before a formal lift of martial law would be unconstitutional, dampening market optimism ||
Geneva talks described as “negotiation theatre” and a widening U.S.–EU gap, reducing expectations of a June‑2026 election settlement
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%2%
Geneva talks described as “negotiation theatre” and a widening U.S.–EU gap, reducing expectations of a June‑2026 election settlement
| Carnegie Endowment reports that a parliamentary working group is expected to present draft election legislation by the end of February, reviving hopes of a 2026 vote and lifting
June 30, 2026 jumps to 13%5%
| Carnegie Endowment reports that a parliamentary working group is expected to present draft election legislation by the end of February, reviving hopes of a 2026 vote and lifting “Yes” odds ||
Reuters reports U.S. negotiators intensify pressure for a 2025 election, but Ukrainian officials cite lack of territorial control as a blocker, pushing the market lower
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%8%
Reuters reports U.S. negotiators intensify pressure for a 2025 election, but Ukrainian officials cite lack of territorial control as a blocker, pushing the market lower
Kyiv’s parliament rejects a draft amendment to allow elections under martial law, confirming that no 2025 election will be legally possible
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%5%
Kyiv’s parliament rejects a draft amendment to allow elections under martial law, confirming that no 2025 election will be legally possible
Zelensky claims Western partners may use an election to oust him, casting doubt on the feasibility of a 2025‑2026 vote
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%17%
Zelensky claims Western partners may use an election to oust him, casting doubt on the feasibility of a 2025‑2026 vote
| President Zelenskyy tells a Dublin press conference that “no election will be held before the war ends,” reaffirming the martial‑law ban and driving the|
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%6%
| President Zelenskyy tells a Dublin press conference that “no election will be held before the war ends,” reaffirming the martial‑law ban and driving the|
Businessman Mykhailo Vedmid announces candidacy for Kyiv mayor, shifting media focus to local races and away from national elections
June 30, 2026 drops to 27%7%
Businessman Mykhailo Vedmid announces candidacy for Kyiv mayor, shifting media focus to local races and away from national elections
| Follow‑up Reuters analysis notes that the draft election law faces strong opposition in the Rada and is unlikely to pass before the end of 2025, sending “Yes” odds sharply lower
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%6%
| Follow‑up Reuters analysis notes that the draft election law faces strong opposition in the Rada and is unlikely to pass before the end of 2025, sending “Yes” odds sharply lower ||
Trump repeats that Ukraine must hold elections now, prompting Zelensky to call the demand “unreasonable” and further delaying any concrete timetable
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%4%
Trump repeats that Ukraine must hold elections now, prompting Zelensky to call the demand “unreasonable” and further delaying any concrete timetable
Reuters reports U.S. diplomats intensify pressure on Kyiv to schedule elections soon, heightening market optimism
June 30, 2026 surges to 34%16%
Reuters reports U.S. diplomats intensify pressure on Kyiv to schedule elections soon, heightening market optimism
SOCIS poll shows former commander‑in‑chief Valery Zaluzhny would win 64 % against Zelensky’s 36 % in a hypothetical runoff, underscoring political risk for the incumbent
SOCIS poll shows former commander‑in‑chief Valery Zaluzhny would win 64 % against Zelensky’s 36 % in a hypothetical runoff, underscoring political risk for the incumbent
Zelensky orders the Verkhovna Rada to give a clear answer on holding elections under martial law, signalling parliamentary resistance
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Zelensky orders the Verkhovna Rada to give a clear answer on holding elections under martial law, signalling parliamentary resistance
| CNN explainer reports President Zelenskyy says Ukraine could hold elections in the “next 60‑90 days” only if security guarantees are met, prompting a short‑term|
June 30, 2026 dips to 30%4%
| CNN explainer reports President Zelenskyy says Ukraine could hold elections in the “next 60‑90 days” only if security guarantees are met, prompting a short‑term|
Zelensky orders the Verkhovna Rada to answer “Washington speculations” on elections, signalling no firm schedule yet
December 31, 2026 rises to 47%2%
Zelensky orders the Verkhovna Rada to answer “Washington speculations” on elections, signalling no firm schedule yet
Zelensky announces at an urgent online press conference that Ukraine could hold elections within 60‑90 days if the U.S.
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%8%
and EU provide security guarantees
Zelensky announces he will meet Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and reiterates readiness for elections in 60‑90 days, but notes martial‑law restrictions
December 31, 2026 dips to 45%2%
Zelensky announces he will meet Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and reiterates readiness for elections in 60‑90 days, but notes martial‑law restrictions
U.S. diplomats publicly pressure Kyiv to schedule elections “as soon as possible,” raising expectations of a 2025 vote
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%8%
U.S. diplomats publicly pressure Kyiv to schedule elections “as soon as possible,” raising expectations of a 2025 vote
| Ukrainian parliament’s special working group releases a draft law that would allow elections to be called within 30 days of a martial‑law lift, sparking a brief rally in “Yes”
June 30, 2026 surges to 38%16%
| Ukrainian parliament’s special working group releases a draft law that would allow elections to be called within 30 days of a martial‑law lift, sparking a brief rally in “Yes” odds ||
Zelensky says elections could be held only “within 60‑90 days if security guarantees are provided” and asks parliament to draft law changes
December 31, 2026 rises to 52%1%
Zelensky says elections could be held only “within 60‑90 days if security guarantees are provided” and asks parliament to draft law changes
| OSCE Parliamentary Assembly meeting in Istanbul highlights Ukraine’s “post‑conflict election readiness” but notes that no concrete timetable exists, keeping optimism modest ||
June 30, 2026 rises to 22%1%
| OSCE Parliamentary Assembly meeting in Istanbul highlights Ukraine’s “post‑conflict election readiness” but notes that no concrete timetable exists, keeping optimism modest ||
Donald Trump publicly urges Kyiv to hold presidential elections “now,” prompting Zelensky to say he is ready to vote under martial law
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%30%
Donald Trump publicly urges Kyiv to hold presidential elections “now,” prompting Zelensky to say he is ready to vote under martial law
| Opposition leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko publicly state they will continue to oppose any wartime elections, citing legal bans ||
June 30, 2026 drops to 21%6%
| Opposition leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko publicly state they will continue to oppose any wartime elections, citing legal bans ||
| Verkhovna Rada passes a resolution reaffirming that elections are prohibited during martial law and pledges to hold a presidential election only after the war ends ||
June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%24%
| Verkhovna Rada passes a resolution reaffirming that elections are prohibited during martial law and pledges to hold a presidential election only after the war ends ||
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes