Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price shocks have prompted widespread downgrades to UK 2026 growth forecasts, with the IMF, OECD, and others cutting projections to 0.8–1.1% amid higher input costs, sticky inflation, and reduced household spending power. Q1 GDP expanded a solid 0.6% QoQ, yet May PMI readings and Bank of England surveys point to a sharp slowdown, with underlying growth near 0.1% expected for Q2. Elevated UK gas exposure, rising 10-year yields, and loosening labor market conditions create a narrow path between mild expansion and contraction. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, pricing a near-even contest between negative growth and low-positive bands as June data and the June 18 MPC decision approach.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNegative 47%
0,4–0,5 % 45%
0,0–0,1% 44%
0,2–0,3% 42%
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 ago 2026
Negative
47%
0,0–0,1%
44%
0,2–0,3%
42%
0,4–0,5 %
45%
0,6–0,7%
41%
0,8–0,9%
43%
1.0%+
41%
Negative 47%
0,4–0,5 % 45%
0,0–0,1% 44%
0,2–0,3% 42%
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 ago 2026
Negative
$0 Vol.
47%
0,0–0,1%
$0 Vol.
44%
0,2–0,3%
$0 Vol.
42%
0,4–0,5 %
$0 Vol.
45%
0,6–0,7%
$0 Vol.
41%
0,8–0,9%
$8 Vol.
43%
1.0%+
$40 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price shocks have prompted widespread downgrades to UK 2026 growth forecasts, with the IMF, OECD, and others cutting projections to 0.8–1.1% amid higher input costs, sticky inflation, and reduced household spending power. Q1 GDP expanded a solid 0.6% QoQ, yet May PMI readings and Bank of England surveys point to a sharp slowdown, with underlying growth near 0.1% expected for Q2. Elevated UK gas exposure, rising 10-year yields, and loosening labor market conditions create a narrow path between mild expansion and contraction. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, pricing a near-even contest between negative growth and low-positive bands as June data and the June 18 MPC decision approach.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volumen
$48Fecha de finalización
12 ago 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price shocks have prompted widespread downgrades to UK 2026 growth forecasts, with the IMF, OECD, and others cutting projections to 0.8–1.1% amid higher input costs, sticky inflation, and reduced household spending power. Q1 GDP expanded a solid 0.6% QoQ, yet May PMI readings and Bank of England surveys point to a sharp slowdown, with underlying growth near 0.1% expected for Q2. Elevated UK gas exposure, rising 10-year yields, and loosening labor market conditions create a narrow path between mild expansion and contraction. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, pricing a near-even contest between negative growth and low-positive bands as June data and the June 18 MPC decision approach.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$48Fecha de finalización
12 ago 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price shocks have prompted widespread downgrades to UK 2026 growth forecasts, with the IMF, OECD, and others cutting projections to 0.8–1.1% amid higher input costs, sticky inflation, and reduced household spending power. Q1 GDP expanded a solid 0.6% QoQ, yet May PMI readings and Bank of England surveys point to a sharp slowdown, with underlying growth near 0.1% expected for Q2. Elevated UK gas exposure, rising 10-year yields, and loosening labor market conditions create a narrow path between mild expansion and contraction. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, pricing a near-even contest between negative growth and low-positive bands as June data and the June 18 MPC decision approach.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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