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Política·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18

icon for Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18
Política·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18

Christian Menefee 85.7%

Al Green 16.6%

Gretchen Brown <1%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Polymarket

$26,441 Vol.

Christian Menefee 85.7%

Al Green 16.6%

Gretchen Brown <1%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Polymarket

$26,441 Vol.

Christian Menefee

$16,106 Vol.

86%

Al Green

$4,432 Vol.

17%

Gretchen Brown

$3,177 Vol.

<1%

Amanda Edwards

$2,727 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors Rep. Christian Menefee at 84.1% implied probability to win the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff on May 26, reflecting his consistent lead over Rep. Al Green following the March 3 first-round results where Menefee captured 48.8% to Green's 43.1%, advancing both incumbents in the redrawn Houston-area district. Recent polling averages, including a NYT-tracked survey showing Menefee up 41%-35%, underscore his edge, driven by his February special election victory filling the vacancy after Rep. Sylvester Turner's death, stronger fundraising, endorsements from local leaders like Houston officials, and generational contrast with 78-year-old Green. Gretchen Brown and Amanda Edwards trail far behind as minor first-round candidates with negligible post-runoff viability. Low runoff turnout remains a wildcard, but Menefee's momentum dominates trader assessments ahead of early voting.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$26,441
Fecha de finalización
26 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors Rep. Christian Menefee at 84.1% implied probability to win the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff on May 26, reflecting his consistent lead over Rep. Al Green following the March 3 first-round results where Menefee captured 48.8% to Green's 43.1%, advancing both incumbents in the redrawn Houston-area district. Recent polling averages, including a NYT-tracked survey showing Menefee up 41%-35%, underscore his edge, driven by his February special election victory filling the vacancy after Rep. Sylvester Turner's death, stronger fundraising, endorsements from local leaders like Houston officials, and generational contrast with 78-year-old Green. Gretchen Brown and Amanda Edwards trail far behind as minor first-round candidates with negligible post-runoff viability. Low runoff turnout remains a wildcard, but Menefee's momentum dominates trader assessments ahead of early voting.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$26,441
Fecha de finalización
26 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Christian Menefee" con 86%, seguido de "Al Green" con 17%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 86¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 86% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18" ha generado $26.4K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 4, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18" es "Christian Menefee" con 86%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 86% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Al Green" con 17%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de TX-18" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.