Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back the Scottish National Party at 99.4% implied probability to secure the most seats in the Scottish Parliament election on May 7, driven by consistent April polling averages showing SNP leading constituency votes at 35-38%—17 points ahead of rivals—and regional list at 29%. MRP projections from YouGov, JL Partners, and others forecast SNP 56-67 seats under the Additional Member System, well clear of Reform UK (projected second at 16-20), Labour (15-19), and others amid fragmented opposition gains. Recent Survation polls through late April reinforced this stability, with no major campaign shocks. Barring late scandals, turnout swings, or polling errors, an SNP plurality remains the trader consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Escocia
Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Escocia
Partido Nacional Escocés 99.4%
Reform UK <1%
Demócratas Liberales Escoceses <1%
Partido Alba <1%
$1,806,355 Vol.
$1,806,355 Vol.
7 may 2026
Partido Nacional Escocés
99%
Reform UK
<1%
Demócratas Liberales Escoceses
<1%
Partido Alba
<1%
Partido Laborista Escocés
<1%
Partido Verde Escocés
<1%
Conservadores Escoceses
<1%
Partido Soberanía
<1%
Partido Nacional Escocés 99.4%
Reform UK <1%
Demócratas Liberales Escoceses <1%
Partido Alba <1%
$1,806,355 Vol.
$1,806,355 Vol.
7 may 2026
Partido Nacional Escocés
$1,343,869 Vol.
99%
Reform UK
$107,864 Vol.
<1%
Demócratas Liberales Escoceses
$126,984 Vol.
<1%
Partido Alba
$40,348 Vol.
<1%
Partido Laborista Escocés
$65,938 Vol.
<1%
Partido Verde Escocés
$60,719 Vol.
<1%
Conservadores Escoceses
$28,053 Vol.
<1%
Partido Soberanía
$32,580 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back the Scottish National Party at 99.4% implied probability to secure the most seats in the Scottish Parliament election on May 7, driven by consistent April polling averages showing SNP leading constituency votes at 35-38%—17 points ahead of rivals—and regional list at 29%. MRP projections from YouGov, JL Partners, and others forecast SNP 56-67 seats under the Additional Member System, well clear of Reform UK (projected second at 16-20), Labour (15-19), and others amid fragmented opposition gains. Recent Survation polls through late April reinforced this stability, with no major campaign shocks. Barring late scandals, turnout swings, or polling errors, an SNP plurality remains the trader consensus.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ET
Volumen
$1,806,355Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back the Scottish National Party at 99.4% implied probability to secure the most seats in the Scottish Parliament election on May 7, driven by consistent April polling averages showing SNP leading constituency votes at 35-38%—17 points ahead of rivals—and regional list at 29%. MRP projections from YouGov, JL Partners, and others forecast SNP 56-67 seats under the Additional Member System, well clear of Reform UK (projected second at 16-20), Labour (15-19), and others amid fragmented opposition gains. Recent Survation polls through late April reinforced this stability, with no major campaign shocks. Barring late scandals, turnout swings, or polling errors, an SNP plurality remains the trader consensus.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Volumen
$1,806,355Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back the Scottish National Party at 99.4% implied probability to secure the most seats in the Scottish Parliament election on May 7, driven by consistent April polling averages showing SNP leading constituency votes at 35-38%—17 points ahead of rivals—and regional list at 29%. MRP projections from YouGov, JL Partners, and others forecast SNP 56-67 seats under the Additional Member System, well clear of Reform UK (projected second at 16-20), Labour (15-19), and others amid fragmented opposition gains. Recent Survation polls through late April reinforced this stability, with no major campaign shocks. Barring late scandals, turnout swings, or polling errors, an SNP plurality remains the trader consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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