US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi produced incremental steps on ceasefire monitoring mechanisms and repeated prisoner exchanges, yet core disputes over territorial lines, Ukrainian neutrality, and security guarantees remain unresolved, keeping the probability of a comprehensive, mutually agreed halt in hostilities low. Short US-brokered pauses around Orthodox Easter and Russia's Victory Day in May enabled swaps of hundreds of POWs but collapsed amid mutual violation claims and resumed strikes, while Zelenskyy's June proposal for direct talks with Putin drew European backing but was rejected by Moscow. Ongoing battlefield dynamics, including Russian advances in the east and Ukrainian long-range strikes, combined with competing US priorities, continue to limit diplomatic momentum through mid-2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?
¿Acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania por...?
$3,712,356 Vol.
31 dic 2026
30 de junio
4%
31 de octubre
31%
31 de diciembre
46%
$3,712,356 Vol.
30 de junio
$879,703 Vol.
4%
31 de octubre
$238,585 Vol.
31%
31 de diciembre
$1,776,832 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi produced incremental steps on ceasefire monitoring mechanisms and repeated prisoner exchanges, yet core disputes over territorial lines, Ukrainian neutrality, and security guarantees remain unresolved, keeping the probability of a comprehensive, mutually agreed halt in hostilities low. Short US-brokered pauses around Orthodox Easter and Russia's Victory Day in May enabled swaps of hundreds of POWs but collapsed amid mutual violation claims and resumed strikes, while Zelenskyy's June proposal for direct talks with Putin drew European backing but was rejected by Moscow. Ongoing battlefield dynamics, including Russian advances in the east and Ukrainian long-range strikes, combined with competing US priorities, continue to limit diplomatic momentum through mid-2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volumen
$3,712,356Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi produced incremental steps on ceasefire monitoring mechanisms and repeated prisoner exchanges, yet core disputes over territorial lines, Ukrainian neutrality, and security guarantees remain unresolved, keeping the probability of a comprehensive, mutually agreed halt in hostilities low. Short US-brokered pauses around Orthodox Easter and Russia's Victory Day in May enabled swaps of hundreds of POWs but collapsed amid mutual violation claims and resumed strikes, while Zelenskyy's June proposal for direct talks with Putin drew European backing but was rejected by Moscow. Ongoing battlefield dynamics, including Russian advances in the east and Ukrainian long-range strikes, combined with competing US priorities, continue to limit diplomatic momentum through mid-2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,712,356Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi produced incremental steps on ceasefire monitoring mechanisms and repeated prisoner exchanges, yet core disputes over territorial lines, Ukrainian neutrality, and security guarantees remain unresolved, keeping the probability of a comprehensive, mutually agreed halt in hostilities low. Short US-brokered pauses around Orthodox Easter and Russia's Victory Day in May enabled swaps of hundreds of POWs but collapsed amid mutual violation claims and resumed strikes, while Zelenskyy's June proposal for direct talks with Putin drew European backing but was rejected by Moscow. Ongoing battlefield dynamics, including Russian advances in the east and Ukrainian long-range strikes, combined with competing US priorities, continue to limit diplomatic momentum through mid-2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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