**Trader sentiment for Shanghai’s June 15 minimum temperature centers on 22 °C (44.5 %) and 23 °C (33.0 %), reflecting ensemble forecasts that place the overnight low in that narrow range under continued plum-rain (Meiyu) conditions.** June climatology for Shanghai shows average daily lows of 21–24 °C, with high humidity, frequent cloud cover, and light-to-moderate easterly flow from the East China Sea suppressing radiative cooling and keeping surface temperatures elevated. Current model guidance (consistent across recent runs) projects a similar regime for the night of 14–15 June, with widespread stratiform clouds and scattered showers limiting the diurnal temperature drop. Recent observations from mid-June already show minima clustered between 21–23 °C, reinforcing the market’s concentration on these two outcomes. The modest probabilities for 21 °C (16.7 %) or 24 °C (11.5 %) capture residual uncertainty in cloud timing and any brief clearing that could allow slightly more cooling or, conversely, stronger warm advection. Lower-probability tails (20 °C or below at ~11 % combined) would require an atypical influx of drier continental air or clearer skies, conditions not supported by the latest guidance. With resolution occurring within hours, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model output and real-time surface observations most heavily.