Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty for Japan real GDP year-over-year growth in Q1 2026, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around modest expansion at 0.3–0.5% (35%), sharp contraction ≤-0.4% (33.1%), and stagnation at 0.0–0.2% (32%), driven by conflicting March 2026 indicators ahead of the May 18 preliminary release. Strong retail sales surging 1.7% year-over-year signal resilient private consumption amid wage gains and government subsidies, but unexpected industrial production slippage, flat exports, and yen depreciation (USDJPY near multi-decade highs) exert downward pressure via higher import costs and Middle East oil shocks. Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% on April 28, slashing FY2026 growth forecast to 0.5% from 1% due to energy headwinds, underscoring key swing factors in domestic demand versus external drags.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0,3–0,5% 33.8%
≤-0.4% 31.1%
0,6–0,8% 12%
1,2%+ 8.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 may 2026
≤-0.4%
31%
-0,3– -0,1%
5%
0.0–0.2%
26%
0,3–0,5%
34%
0,6–0,8%
12%
0,9–1,1%
2%
1,2%+
8%
0,3–0,5% 33.8%
≤-0.4% 31.1%
0,6–0,8% 12%
1,2%+ 8.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 may 2026
≤-0.4%
$225 Vol.
31%
-0,3– -0,1%
$159 Vol.
5%
0.0–0.2%
$253 Vol.
26%
0,3–0,5%
$132 Vol.
34%
0,6–0,8%
$165 Vol.
12%
0,9–1,1%
$179 Vol.
2%
1,2%+
$906 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty for Japan real GDP year-over-year growth in Q1 2026, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around modest expansion at 0.3–0.5% (35%), sharp contraction ≤-0.4% (33.1%), and stagnation at 0.0–0.2% (32%), driven by conflicting March 2026 indicators ahead of the May 18 preliminary release. Strong retail sales surging 1.7% year-over-year signal resilient private consumption amid wage gains and government subsidies, but unexpected industrial production slippage, flat exports, and yen depreciation (USDJPY near multi-decade highs) exert downward pressure via higher import costs and Middle East oil shocks. Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% on April 28, slashing FY2026 growth forecast to 0.5% from 1% due to energy headwinds, underscoring key swing factors in domestic demand versus external drags.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Mercado abierto: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volumen
$2,019Fecha de finalización
19 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty for Japan real GDP year-over-year growth in Q1 2026, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around modest expansion at 0.3–0.5% (35%), sharp contraction ≤-0.4% (33.1%), and stagnation at 0.0–0.2% (32%), driven by conflicting March 2026 indicators ahead of the May 18 preliminary release. Strong retail sales surging 1.7% year-over-year signal resilient private consumption amid wage gains and government subsidies, but unexpected industrial production slippage, flat exports, and yen depreciation (USDJPY near multi-decade highs) exert downward pressure via higher import costs and Middle East oil shocks. Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% on April 28, slashing FY2026 growth forecast to 0.5% from 1% due to energy headwinds, underscoring key swing factors in domestic demand versus external drags.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volumen
$2,019Fecha de finalización
19 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty for Japan real GDP year-over-year growth in Q1 2026, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around modest expansion at 0.3–0.5% (35%), sharp contraction ≤-0.4% (33.1%), and stagnation at 0.0–0.2% (32%), driven by conflicting March 2026 indicators ahead of the May 18 preliminary release. Strong retail sales surging 1.7% year-over-year signal resilient private consumption amid wage gains and government subsidies, but unexpected industrial production slippage, flat exports, and yen depreciation (USDJPY near multi-decade highs) exert downward pressure via higher import costs and Middle East oil shocks. Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% on April 28, slashing FY2026 growth forecast to 0.5% from 1% due to energy headwinds, underscoring key swing factors in domestic demand versus external drags.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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