Trader consensus prices a 94% implied probability on "No" for Rep. Eric Swalwell's arrest by May 31, reflecting the absence of criminal charges despite multiple sexual misconduct allegations surfacing in early April 2026 that prompted his resignation from Congress. The House Ethics Committee launched a probe on April 13, followed by a DOJ investigation into assault claims from four women, including rape accusations, but no indictments, arraignments, or law enforcement actions have materialized in the subsequent two weeks. Historical patterns show such congressional ethics and federal probes rarely yield arrests within 30 days absent overwhelming evidence or exigent circumstances, with traders awaiting potential grand jury developments or victim cooperation updates before reassessing risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$12,360 Vol.
$12,360 Vol.
31 may 2026
Sí
$12,360 Vol.
$12,360 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 94% implied probability on "No" for Rep. Eric Swalwell's arrest by May 31, reflecting the absence of criminal charges despite multiple sexual misconduct allegations surfacing in early April 2026 that prompted his resignation from Congress. The House Ethics Committee launched a probe on April 13, followed by a DOJ investigation into assault claims from four women, including rape accusations, but no indictments, arraignments, or law enforcement actions have materialized in the subsequent two weeks. Historical patterns show such congressional ethics and federal probes rarely yield arrests within 30 days absent overwhelming evidence or exigent circumstances, with traders awaiting potential grand jury developments or victim cooperation updates before reassessing risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 14, 2026, 2:57 PM ET
Volumen
$12,360Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 94% implied probability on "No" for Rep. Eric Swalwell's arrest by May 31, reflecting the absence of criminal charges despite multiple sexual misconduct allegations surfacing in early April 2026 that prompted his resignation from Congress. The House Ethics Committee launched a probe on April 13, followed by a DOJ investigation into assault claims from four women, including rape accusations, but no indictments, arraignments, or law enforcement actions have materialized in the subsequent two weeks. Historical patterns show such congressional ethics and federal probes rarely yield arrests within 30 days absent overwhelming evidence or exigent circumstances, with traders awaiting potential grand jury developments or victim cooperation updates before reassessing risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$12,360Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 94% implied probability on "No" for Rep. Eric Swalwell's arrest by May 31, reflecting the absence of criminal charges despite multiple sexual misconduct allegations surfacing in early April 2026 that prompted his resignation from Congress. The House Ethics Committee launched a probe on April 13, followed by a DOJ investigation into assault claims from four women, including rape accusations, but no indictments, arraignments, or law enforcement actions have materialized in the subsequent two weeks. Historical patterns show such congressional ethics and federal probes rarely yield arrests within 30 days absent overwhelming evidence or exigent circumstances, with traders awaiting potential grand jury developments or victim cooperation updates before reassessing risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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