France enters the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the clear favorite to top Group I, which also features Norway, Senegal, and Iraq, reflecting its superior squad depth, attacking options including Kylian Mbappé, and proven major-tournament pedigree. Norway sits second in the implied probabilities thanks to Erling Haaland’s scoring threat and improved recent form in European qualifiers, though defensive vulnerabilities limit its upside. Senegal’s organized style and physical presence provide a realistic path to second place or better, while Iraq trails as the clear underdog with the steepest climb against stronger opposition. With the group stage opening in mid-June across U.S. venues, these probabilities align with pre-tournament assessments of team quality and historical performance rather than any acute last-minute roster changes.