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icon for Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?
Politics·Khamenei

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?

icon for Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?
Politics·Khamenei

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?

$1,019,089 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,019,089 Vol.

Polymarket

April 30

$309,133 Vol.

<1%

May 31

$31,525 Vol.

4%

June 30

$15,954 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Iran's Supreme Leader after his father Ali's death in US-Israeli airstrikes launching the 2026 war, has made no public appearances in over seven weeks, fueling trader uncertainty on his status amid ceasefire talks. State media attributes recent written statements—defending nuclear and missile programs while asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz—to him, read by anchors, as officials deny rumors of severe injuries, unconsciousness, or treatment abroad like Russia. No verified reports confirm his departure from Iran; regime communications via couriers delayed Islamabad negotiations last week. Upcoming diplomatic rounds or a public sighting could shift odds on leadership stability and de-escalation prospects.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,019,089
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

Dispute window

Final

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Iran's Supreme Leader after his father Ali's death in US-Israeli airstrikes launching the 2026 war, has made no public appearances in over seven weeks, fueling trader uncertainty on his status amid ceasefire talks. State media attributes recent written statements—defending nuclear and missile programs while asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz—to him, read by anchors, as officials deny rumors of severe injuries, unconsciousness, or treatment abroad like Russia. No verified reports confirm his departure from Iran; regime communications via couriers delayed Islamabad negotiations last week. Upcoming diplomatic rounds or a public sighting could shift odds on leadership stability and de-escalation prospects.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,019,089
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

Dispute window

Final

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30" at 7%, followed by "May 31" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?" has generated $1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 10, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?" is "June 30" at just 7%, with "May 31" close behind at 4%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.