Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability of no magnitude 8.0 or greater megaquake worldwide by June 30, aligned with USGS seismic monitoring showing no acute precursors despite baseline global rates of about one M8+ event annually. A M7.7 earthquake off Japan on April 20 prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory for marginally elevated short-term risk (around 1%) along the Japan Trench due to stress changes, but subsequent data revealed no escalation in aftershocks or strain buildup. High-risk subduction zones like Nankai Trough (70-80% chance of M8-9 in 30 years) and Cascadia (10-15% in 50 years) exhibit no unusual activity per USGS reports. Continuous real-time monitoring from USGS and global networks will provide key updates, though short-term earthquake forecasting remains inherently uncertain.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$59,757 Vol.
$59,757 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$59,757 Vol.
$59,757 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability of no magnitude 8.0 or greater megaquake worldwide by June 30, aligned with USGS seismic monitoring showing no acute precursors despite baseline global rates of about one M8+ event annually. A M7.7 earthquake off Japan on April 20 prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory for marginally elevated short-term risk (around 1%) along the Japan Trench due to stress changes, but subsequent data revealed no escalation in aftershocks or strain buildup. High-risk subduction zones like Nankai Trough (70-80% chance of M8-9 in 30 years) and Cascadia (10-15% in 50 years) exhibit no unusual activity per USGS reports. Continuous real-time monitoring from USGS and global networks will provide key updates, though short-term earthquake forecasting remains inherently uncertain.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$59,757End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability of no magnitude 8.0 or greater megaquake worldwide by June 30, aligned with USGS seismic monitoring showing no acute precursors despite baseline global rates of about one M8+ event annually. A M7.7 earthquake off Japan on April 20 prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory for marginally elevated short-term risk (around 1%) along the Japan Trench due to stress changes, but subsequent data revealed no escalation in aftershocks or strain buildup. High-risk subduction zones like Nankai Trough (70-80% chance of M8-9 in 30 years) and Cascadia (10-15% in 50 years) exhibit no unusual activity per USGS reports. Continuous real-time monitoring from USGS and global networks will provide key updates, though short-term earthquake forecasting remains inherently uncertain.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$59,757End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability of no magnitude 8.0 or greater megaquake worldwide by June 30, aligned with USGS seismic monitoring showing no acute precursors despite baseline global rates of about one M8+ event annually. A M7.7 earthquake off Japan on April 20 prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory for marginally elevated short-term risk (around 1%) along the Japan Trench due to stress changes, but subsequent data revealed no escalation in aftershocks or strain buildup. High-risk subduction zones like Nankai Trough (70-80% chance of M8-9 in 30 years) and Cascadia (10-15% in 50 years) exhibit no unusual activity per USGS reports. Continuous real-time monitoring from USGS and global networks will provide key updates, though short-term earthquake forecasting remains inherently uncertain.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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