Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—40.1% for 0.3–0.5% quarter-on-quarter annualized GDP growth and 39.6% for contraction of ≤-0.4%—reflect mixed leading indicators amid heightened uncertainty from Middle East tensions driving oil prices higher. The Bank of Japan slashed its fiscal 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5% from 1.0% on April 28, citing squeezed corporate profits and household real income, overshadowing upbeat March Tankan survey results showing large manufacturers' sentiment at a four-year high of 17 and planned 3.3% capex gains. Strong March exports and manufacturing PMI expansion to 51.6 support mild growth bets, while Reuters Tankan dip to 7 signals caution on consumption. Key swing factor ahead of the May 17 preliminary release: energy cost pass-through to domestic demand.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≤-0.4% 39.1%
0.3–0.5% 37.8%
0.9–1.1% 26.3%
0.0–0.2% 22.0%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
39%
-0.3– -0.1%
20%
0.0–0.2%
22%
0.3–0.5%
38%
0.6–0.8%
22%
0.9–1.1%
26%
1.2%+
13%
≤-0.4% 39.1%
0.3–0.5% 37.8%
0.9–1.1% 26.3%
0.0–0.2% 22.0%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
$225 Vol.
39%
-0.3– -0.1%
$159 Vol.
20%
0.0–0.2%
$248 Vol.
22%
0.3–0.5%
$132 Vol.
38%
0.6–0.8%
$165 Vol.
22%
0.9–1.1%
$179 Vol.
26%
1.2%+
$906 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—40.1% for 0.3–0.5% quarter-on-quarter annualized GDP growth and 39.6% for contraction of ≤-0.4%—reflect mixed leading indicators amid heightened uncertainty from Middle East tensions driving oil prices higher. The Bank of Japan slashed its fiscal 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5% from 1.0% on April 28, citing squeezed corporate profits and household real income, overshadowing upbeat March Tankan survey results showing large manufacturers' sentiment at a four-year high of 17 and planned 3.3% capex gains. Strong March exports and manufacturing PMI expansion to 51.6 support mild growth bets, while Reuters Tankan dip to 7 signals caution on consumption. Key swing factor ahead of the May 17 preliminary release: energy cost pass-through to domestic demand.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Market Opened: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$2,014End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—40.1% for 0.3–0.5% quarter-on-quarter annualized GDP growth and 39.6% for contraction of ≤-0.4%—reflect mixed leading indicators amid heightened uncertainty from Middle East tensions driving oil prices higher. The Bank of Japan slashed its fiscal 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5% from 1.0% on April 28, citing squeezed corporate profits and household real income, overshadowing upbeat March Tankan survey results showing large manufacturers' sentiment at a four-year high of 17 and planned 3.3% capex gains. Strong March exports and manufacturing PMI expansion to 51.6 support mild growth bets, while Reuters Tankan dip to 7 signals caution on consumption. Key swing factor ahead of the May 17 preliminary release: energy cost pass-through to domestic demand.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$2,014End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—40.1% for 0.3–0.5% quarter-on-quarter annualized GDP growth and 39.6% for contraction of ≤-0.4%—reflect mixed leading indicators amid heightened uncertainty from Middle East tensions driving oil prices higher. The Bank of Japan slashed its fiscal 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5% from 1.0% on April 28, citing squeezed corporate profits and household real income, overshadowing upbeat March Tankan survey results showing large manufacturers' sentiment at a four-year high of 17 and planned 3.3% capex gains. Strong March exports and manufacturing PMI expansion to 51.6 support mild growth bets, while Reuters Tankan dip to 7 signals caution on consumption. Key swing factor ahead of the May 17 preliminary release: energy cost pass-through to domestic demand.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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