Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data through April 27 logs over 300 tornado reports across the US, well above the 1991–2020 April average of 182, driven by multiple outbreaks including 130 tornadoes in the April 23–28 sequence (featuring an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma), over 50 on April 17 in the Upper Midwest, and dozens on April 13–14 amid supercell-favorable conditions like CAPE exceeding 2,000 J/kg, strong vertical wind shear, and Gulf moisture influx. Trader consensus tilts slightly toward 260–289 (51%) over 290–319 (44.6%), reflecting uncertainty in National Weather Service surveys that historically confirm about 65% of raw reports; final NCEI count, due May 8, hinges on validation of marginal events from late outbreaks, with minimal activity on April 29–30 limiting upside.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in April?
How many Tornadoes in the US in April?
290–319 42.4%
230–259 6.9%
350+ 6.7%
200–229 3.4%
$55,260 Vol.
$55,260 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<140
<1%
140–169
1%
170–199
<1%
200–229
3%
230–259
7%
260–289
49%
290–319
42%
320–350
40%
350+
7%
290–319 42.4%
230–259 6.9%
350+ 6.7%
200–229 3.4%
$55,260 Vol.
$55,260 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<140
$10,584 Vol.
<1%
140–169
$15,781 Vol.
1%
170–199
$1,893 Vol.
<1%
200–229
$1,108 Vol.
3%
230–259
$2,538 Vol.
7%
260–289
$268 Vol.
49%
290–319
$475 Vol.
42%
320–350
$196 Vol.
40%
350+
$22,421 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data through April 27 logs over 300 tornado reports across the US, well above the 1991–2020 April average of 182, driven by multiple outbreaks including 130 tornadoes in the April 23–28 sequence (featuring an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma), over 50 on April 17 in the Upper Midwest, and dozens on April 13–14 amid supercell-favorable conditions like CAPE exceeding 2,000 J/kg, strong vertical wind shear, and Gulf moisture influx. Trader consensus tilts slightly toward 260–289 (51%) over 290–319 (44.6%), reflecting uncertainty in National Weather Service surveys that historically confirm about 65% of raw reports; final NCEI count, due May 8, hinges on validation of marginal events from late outbreaks, with minimal activity on April 29–30 limiting upside.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$55,260End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data through April 27 logs over 300 tornado reports across the US, well above the 1991–2020 April average of 182, driven by multiple outbreaks including 130 tornadoes in the April 23–28 sequence (featuring an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma), over 50 on April 17 in the Upper Midwest, and dozens on April 13–14 amid supercell-favorable conditions like CAPE exceeding 2,000 J/kg, strong vertical wind shear, and Gulf moisture influx. Trader consensus tilts slightly toward 260–289 (51%) over 290–319 (44.6%), reflecting uncertainty in National Weather Service surveys that historically confirm about 65% of raw reports; final NCEI count, due May 8, hinges on validation of marginal events from late outbreaks, with minimal activity on April 29–30 limiting upside.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$55,260End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data through April 27 logs over 300 tornado reports across the US, well above the 1991–2020 April average of 182, driven by multiple outbreaks including 130 tornadoes in the April 23–28 sequence (featuring an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma), over 50 on April 17 in the Upper Midwest, and dozens on April 13–14 amid supercell-favorable conditions like CAPE exceeding 2,000 J/kg, strong vertical wind shear, and Gulf moisture influx. Trader consensus tilts slightly toward 260–289 (51%) over 290–319 (44.6%), reflecting uncertainty in National Weather Service surveys that historically confirm about 65% of raw reports; final NCEI count, due May 8, hinges on validation of marginal events from late outbreaks, with minimal activity on April 29–30 limiting upside.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions