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Tech·Culture

How many SpaceX launches in April?

icon for How many SpaceX launches in April?
Tech·Culture

How many SpaceX launches in April?

Apr 30

Apr 30

12 90.5%

≤11 6.0%

15 3.4%

13 2.3%

Polymarket

$99,194 Vol.

12 90.5%

≤11 6.0%

15 3.4%

13 2.3%

Polymarket

$99,194 Vol.

≤11

$4,883 Vol.

6%

12

$4,361 Vol.

91%

13

$14,902 Vol.

2%

14

$24,220 Vol.

<1%

15

$2,648 Vol.

3%

16

$42,825 Vol.

<1%

17 or more

$5,355 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs exactly 12 SpaceX launches in April 2026 at 88.2% implied probability, driven by the flawless execution of Starlink Group 17-36 from Vandenberg SLC-4E early on April 30 UTC—marking the month's capstone mission after 11 prior successes. This surge reflects SpaceX's blistering cadence, hitting the 50th orbital flight of the year by April 26 amid booming Starlink demand, with key highlights including the Falcon Heavy debut for ViaSat-3 APAC on April 29 from Kennedy LC-39A, GPS III-10 on April 21, and frequent Starlink batches from Florida and California pads. Multiple booster landings, like those at LZ-40 and droneships, underscore reliability. With midnight ET approaching and no further manifests, ≤11 at 5.9% hinges on rare scrub recounts, while higher tallies fade absent scrambles.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$99,194
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs exactly 12 SpaceX launches in April 2026 at 88.2% implied probability, driven by the flawless execution of Starlink Group 17-36 from Vandenberg SLC-4E early on April 30 UTC—marking the month's capstone mission after 11 prior successes. This surge reflects SpaceX's blistering cadence, hitting the 50th orbital flight of the year by April 26 amid booming Starlink demand, with key highlights including the Falcon Heavy debut for ViaSat-3 APAC on April 29 from Kennedy LC-39A, GPS III-10 on April 21, and frequent Starlink batches from Florida and California pads. Multiple booster landings, like those at LZ-40 and droneships, underscore reliability. With midnight ET approaching and no further manifests, ≤11 at 5.9% hinges on rare scrub recounts, while higher tallies fade absent scrambles.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$99,194
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many SpaceX launches in April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12" at 91%, followed by "≤11" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many SpaceX launches in April?" has generated $99.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many SpaceX launches in April?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many SpaceX launches in April?" is "12" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "≤11" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many SpaceX launches in April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.