Trader consensus heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes during the June 8–14 window, with 92.5% implied probability reflecting USGS confirmation of a seismically quiet period. Global M6.5+ events average roughly one to two per week along subduction zones and plate boundaries, yet no qualifying mainshocks or aftershocks registered in official catalogs this interval, consistent with typical variability and rapid decay of sequences per Omori’s law. Recent activity, including any lingering aftershocks from earlier events, remained below threshold. Final USGS verification through June 14 data releases anchors this positioning, though an undetected or revised event near resolution criteria could still shift outcomes in low-probability scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?
0 93%
1 8%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$24,744 Vol.
$24,744 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
0
93%
1
8%
2
1%
3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 93%
1 8%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$24,744 Vol.
$24,744 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
0
$8,322 Vol.
93%
1
$2,605 Vol.
8%
2
$2,580 Vol.
1%
3
$2,748 Vol.
<1%
4
$3,202 Vol.
<1%
5
$1,770 Vol.
<1%
>5
$3,528 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes during the June 8–14 window, with 92.5% implied probability reflecting USGS confirmation of a seismically quiet period. Global M6.5+ events average roughly one to two per week along subduction zones and plate boundaries, yet no qualifying mainshocks or aftershocks registered in official catalogs this interval, consistent with typical variability and rapid decay of sequences per Omori’s law. Recent activity, including any lingering aftershocks from earlier events, remained below threshold. Final USGS verification through June 14 data releases anchors this positioning, though an undetected or revised event near resolution criteria could still shift outcomes in low-probability scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$24,744End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes during the June 8–14 window, with 92.5% implied probability reflecting USGS confirmation of a seismically quiet period. Global M6.5+ events average roughly one to two per week along subduction zones and plate boundaries, yet no qualifying mainshocks or aftershocks registered in official catalogs this interval, consistent with typical variability and rapid decay of sequences per Omori’s law. Recent activity, including any lingering aftershocks from earlier events, remained below threshold. Final USGS verification through June 14 data releases anchors this positioning, though an undetected or revised event near resolution criteria could still shift outcomes in low-probability scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$24,744End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes during the June 8–14 window, with 92.5% implied probability reflecting USGS confirmation of a seismically quiet period. Global M6.5+ events average roughly one to two per week along subduction zones and plate boundaries, yet no qualifying mainshocks or aftershocks registered in official catalogs this interval, consistent with typical variability and rapid decay of sequences per Omori’s law. Recent activity, including any lingering aftershocks from earlier events, remained below threshold. Final USGS verification through June 14 data releases anchors this positioning, though an undetected or revised event near resolution criteria could still shift outcomes in low-probability scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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