Trader sentiment reflects the inherent unpredictability of global seismicity, with closely matched market-implied probabilities around ≤3 to 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater from April 27 to May 3, aligning with a historical baseline of roughly 5–7 such events per week derived from USGS worldwide M 5–5.9 frequency (about 30 weekly, adjusted for the higher threshold). Zero M5.5+ quakes have occurred through April 29 per USGS catalog, following eight the prior week amid routine tectonic activity, introducing Poisson-like variance where clusters or quiet spells are common without precursor signals. No active aftershock sequences or fault-line swarms currently elevate odds; differentiation hinges on remaining days' random strain releases, tracked via USGS real-time seismic networks, with final tallies from the authoritative catalog.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
≤3 22.1%
4 21.3%
5 20%
6 18%
$18,017 Vol.
$18,017 Vol.
May 3, 2026
≤3
22%
4
21%
5
20%
6
18%
7
10%
8
12%
9
9%
>9
7%
≤3 22.1%
4 21.3%
5 20%
6 18%
$18,017 Vol.
$18,017 Vol.
May 3, 2026
≤3
$4,109 Vol.
22%
4
$975 Vol.
21%
5
$569 Vol.
20%
6
$1,008 Vol.
18%
7
$1,547 Vol.
10%
8
$999 Vol.
12%
9
$1,162 Vol.
9%
>9
$7,849 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment reflects the inherent unpredictability of global seismicity, with closely matched market-implied probabilities around ≤3 to 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater from April 27 to May 3, aligning with a historical baseline of roughly 5–7 such events per week derived from USGS worldwide M 5–5.9 frequency (about 30 weekly, adjusted for the higher threshold). Zero M5.5+ quakes have occurred through April 29 per USGS catalog, following eight the prior week amid routine tectonic activity, introducing Poisson-like variance where clusters or quiet spells are common without precursor signals. No active aftershock sequences or fault-line swarms currently elevate odds; differentiation hinges on remaining days' random strain releases, tracked via USGS real-time seismic networks, with final tallies from the authoritative catalog.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Volume
$18,017End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment reflects the inherent unpredictability of global seismicity, with closely matched market-implied probabilities around ≤3 to 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater from April 27 to May 3, aligning with a historical baseline of roughly 5–7 such events per week derived from USGS worldwide M 5–5.9 frequency (about 30 weekly, adjusted for the higher threshold). Zero M5.5+ quakes have occurred through April 29 per USGS catalog, following eight the prior week amid routine tectonic activity, introducing Poisson-like variance where clusters or quiet spells are common without precursor signals. No active aftershock sequences or fault-line swarms currently elevate odds; differentiation hinges on remaining days' random strain releases, tracked via USGS real-time seismic networks, with final tallies from the authoritative catalog.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$18,017End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment reflects the inherent unpredictability of global seismicity, with closely matched market-implied probabilities around ≤3 to 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater from April 27 to May 3, aligning with a historical baseline of roughly 5–7 such events per week derived from USGS worldwide M 5–5.9 frequency (about 30 weekly, adjusted for the higher threshold). Zero M5.5+ quakes have occurred through April 29 per USGS catalog, following eight the prior week amid routine tectonic activity, introducing Poisson-like variance where clusters or quiet spells are common without precursor signals. No active aftershock sequences or fault-line swarms currently elevate odds; differentiation hinges on remaining days' random strain releases, tracked via USGS real-time seismic networks, with final tallies from the authoritative catalog.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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