Skip to main content
icon for ECB Interest Rates: April 2026
Economy·Interest Rate

ECB Interest Rates: April 2026

icon for ECB Interest Rates: April 2026
Economy·Interest Rate

ECB Interest Rates: April 2026

Apr 30

Jun 11

Apr 30

Jun 11

No change 100.0%

50+ bps decrease <1%

25 bps decrease <1%

Increase <1%

Polymarket

$1,143,480 Vol.

No change 100.0%

50+ bps decrease <1%

25 bps decrease <1%

Increase <1%

Polymarket

$1,143,480 Vol.

50+ bps decrease

$184,518 Vol.

<1%

25 bps decrease

$157,818 Vol.

<1%

No change

$437,284 Vol.

100%

Increase

$368,169 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The European Central Bank's Governing Council decided on April 30 to keep key interest rates unchanged—including the deposit facility at 2% and main refinancing operations at 2.15%—despite Eurozone headline inflation surging to 3% in April amid soaring energy prices from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict. This extends the March hold, with ECB staff projections showing inflation averaging 2.6% for 2026, though consumer expectations jumped to 4% one-year ahead. Traders' 100% consensus on no change reflects the confirmed announcement and official statement, embodying skin-in-the-game certainty; only an extraordinary reversal, such as immediate data revisions or emergency reconvening, could shift resolution, though historical precedent deems this negligible.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.

If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volume
$1,143,480
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The European Central Bank's Governing Council decided on April 30 to keep key interest rates unchanged—including the deposit facility at 2% and main refinancing operations at 2.15%—despite Eurozone headline inflation surging to 3% in April amid soaring energy prices from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict. This extends the March hold, with ECB staff projections showing inflation averaging 2.6% for 2026, though consumer expectations jumped to 4% one-year ahead. Traders' 100% consensus on no change reflects the confirmed announcement and official statement, embodying skin-in-the-game certainty; only an extraordinary reversal, such as immediate data revisions or emergency reconvening, could shift resolution, though historical precedent deems this negligible.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.

If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volume
$1,143,480
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Related

icon for No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

48%
icon for Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?

53%
icon for Will the People's Bank of China not change rates in April?

Will the People's Bank of China not change rates in April?

100%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"ECB Interest Rates: April 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No change" at 100%, followed by "50+ bps decrease" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "ECB Interest Rates: April 2026" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "ECB Interest Rates: April 2026," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "ECB Interest Rates: April 2026" is "No change" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "50+ bps decrease" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "ECB Interest Rates: April 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.