Major labs continue releasing iterative frontier models that drive Elo gains on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard through crowdsourced blind comparisons. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 variants currently lead near 1504, with Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview and xAI’s Grok 4.20 close behind at roughly 1493–1500. Trader sentiment for higher thresholds hinges on whether these companies can deliver meaningful capability jumps—via larger training runs, improved post-training, or architectural advances—before year-end, amid a tight competitive field where small margins separate the top entries. Key catalysts include any announced model launches, scaling updates, or capability benchmarks from the leading providers through the second half of 2026, as each new version can quickly shift the aggregate score distribution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$97,390 Vol.
31 dic 2026
↑ 1550
20%
↑ 1600
11%
↑ 1650
10%
↑ 1700
9%
$97,390 Vol.
↑ 1550
$32,746 Vol.
20%
↑ 1600
$18,334 Vol.
11%
↑ 1650
$7,486 Vol.
10%
↑ 1700
$5,070 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Major labs continue releasing iterative frontier models that drive Elo gains on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard through crowdsourced blind comparisons. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 variants currently lead near 1504, with Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview and xAI’s Grok 4.20 close behind at roughly 1493–1500. Trader sentiment for higher thresholds hinges on whether these companies can deliver meaningful capability jumps—via larger training runs, improved post-training, or architectural advances—before year-end, amid a tight competitive field where small margins separate the top entries. Key catalysts include any announced model launches, scaling updates, or capability benchmarks from the leading providers through the second half of 2026, as each new version can quickly shift the aggregate score distribution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Volumen
$97,390Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Major labs continue releasing iterative frontier models that drive Elo gains on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard through crowdsourced blind comparisons. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 variants currently lead near 1504, with Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview and xAI’s Grok 4.20 close behind at roughly 1493–1500. Trader sentiment for higher thresholds hinges on whether these companies can deliver meaningful capability jumps—via larger training runs, improved post-training, or architectural advances—before year-end, amid a tight competitive field where small margins separate the top entries. Key catalysts include any announced model launches, scaling updates, or capability benchmarks from the leading providers through the second half of 2026, as each new version can quickly shift the aggregate score distribution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$97,390Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Major labs continue releasing iterative frontier models that drive Elo gains on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard through crowdsourced blind comparisons. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 variants currently lead near 1504, with Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview and xAI’s Grok 4.20 close behind at roughly 1493–1500. Trader sentiment for higher thresholds hinges on whether these companies can deliver meaningful capability jumps—via larger training runs, improved post-training, or architectural advances—before year-end, amid a tight competitive field where small margins separate the top entries. Key catalysts include any announced model launches, scaling updates, or capability benchmarks from the leading providers through the second half of 2026, as each new version can quickly shift the aggregate score distribution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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