Recent polls have solidified ACM Neto of União Brasil as the frontrunner in the Bahia gubernatorial race, with trader consensus reflecting his consistent leads over incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of PT ahead of the October 4 first-round vote and potential runoff on October 25. A late-April Quaest survey showed Neto at 41% to Rodrigues' 37% in the first round, while Veritá's April poll gave Neto 55.9% of valid votes against 42.3%, building on March leads where he topped 47-58% in stimulated scenarios. Higher rejection rates for Rodrigues (nearly 47%) versus Neto's 22% underscore voter shifts challenging PT's long Northeast dominance, though the race remains fluid with five months until balloting. Minor candidates like José Carlos Aleluia and Kleber Rosa trail far behind in surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedACM Neto 53%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 28%
José Carlos Aleluia 5.3%
Kleber Rosa 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
ACM Neto
53%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
35%
José Carlos Aleluia
5%
Kleber Rosa
5%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
ACM Neto 53%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 28%
José Carlos Aleluia 5.3%
Kleber Rosa 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
ACM Neto
$1,371 Vol.
53%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$609 Vol.
35%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,218 Vol.
5%
Kleber Rosa
$617 Vol.
5%
João Roma
$324 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$324 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$488 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls have solidified ACM Neto of União Brasil as the frontrunner in the Bahia gubernatorial race, with trader consensus reflecting his consistent leads over incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of PT ahead of the October 4 first-round vote and potential runoff on October 25. A late-April Quaest survey showed Neto at 41% to Rodrigues' 37% in the first round, while Veritá's April poll gave Neto 55.9% of valid votes against 42.3%, building on March leads where he topped 47-58% in stimulated scenarios. Higher rejection rates for Rodrigues (nearly 47%) versus Neto's 22% underscore voter shifts challenging PT's long Northeast dominance, though the race remains fluid with five months until balloting. Minor candidates like José Carlos Aleluia and Kleber Rosa trail far behind in surveys.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$4,952End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls have solidified ACM Neto of União Brasil as the frontrunner in the Bahia gubernatorial race, with trader consensus reflecting his consistent leads over incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of PT ahead of the October 4 first-round vote and potential runoff on October 25. A late-April Quaest survey showed Neto at 41% to Rodrigues' 37% in the first round, while Veritá's April poll gave Neto 55.9% of valid votes against 42.3%, building on March leads where he topped 47-58% in stimulated scenarios. Higher rejection rates for Rodrigues (nearly 47%) versus Neto's 22% underscore voter shifts challenging PT's long Northeast dominance, though the race remains fluid with five months until balloting. Minor candidates like José Carlos Aleluia and Kleber Rosa trail far behind in surveys.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$4,952End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls have solidified ACM Neto of União Brasil as the frontrunner in the Bahia gubernatorial race, with trader consensus reflecting his consistent leads over incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of PT ahead of the October 4 first-round vote and potential runoff on October 25. A late-April Quaest survey showed Neto at 41% to Rodrigues' 37% in the first round, while Veritá's April poll gave Neto 55.9% of valid votes against 42.3%, building on March leads where he topped 47-58% in stimulated scenarios. Higher rejection rates for Rodrigues (nearly 47%) versus Neto's 22% underscore voter shifts challenging PT's long Northeast dominance, though the race remains fluid with five months until balloting. Minor candidates like José Carlos Aleluia and Kleber Rosa trail far behind in surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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