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Elections·Brazil

Bahia Governor Election Winner

icon for Bahia Governor Election Winner
Elections·Brazil

Bahia Governor Election Winner

ACM Neto 53%

Jerônimo Rodrigues 28%

José Carlos Aleluia 5.7%

Kleber Rosa 4.5%

Polymarket
NEW

ACM Neto 53%

Jerônimo Rodrigues 28%

José Carlos Aleluia 5.7%

Kleber Rosa 4.5%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for ACM Neto

ACM Neto

$2,431 Vol.

53%

icon for Jerônimo Rodrigues

Jerônimo Rodrigues

$609 Vol.

34%

icon for José Carlos Aleluia

José Carlos Aleluia

$1,218 Vol.

6%

icon for Kleber Rosa

Kleber Rosa

$617 Vol.

5%

icon for Rui Costa

Rui Costa

$488 Vol.

<1%

icon for João Roma

João Roma

$324 Vol.

<1%

icon for Bruno Soares Reis

Bruno Soares Reis

$324 Vol.

<1%

The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls underpin trader consensus favoring ACM Neto at 53.5% implied probability to win Bahia's governorship, ahead of incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues at 33%, in a tight race set for first-round voting on October 4, 2026, with potential runoff October 25. The latest Quaest survey (April 23-27) shows Neto (União Brasil) leading 41%-37% stimulated, while Veritá's March poll had him at 47%-31%, reflecting his momentum as former Salvador mayor challenging PT's 20-year hold on the state executive. Jerônimo dismissed some surveys as off-mark on April 15, but consistent polling edges sustain Neto's frontrunner status amid polarization, with José Carlos Aleluia and Kleber Rosa distant at 5% and 4.5%. High undecideds (11-14%) signal volatility ahead.

The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$6,012
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls underpin trader consensus favoring ACM Neto at 53.5% implied probability to win Bahia's governorship, ahead of incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues at 33%, in a tight race set for first-round voting on October 4, 2026, with potential runoff October 25. The latest Quaest survey (April 23-27) shows Neto (União Brasil) leading 41%-37% stimulated, while Veritá's March poll had him at 47%-31%, reflecting his momentum as former Salvador mayor challenging PT's 20-year hold on the state executive. Jerônimo dismissed some surveys as off-mark on April 15, but consistent polling edges sustain Neto's frontrunner status amid polarization, with José Carlos Aleluia and Kleber Rosa distant at 5% and 4.5%. High undecideds (11-14%) signal volatility ahead.

The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$6,012
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Bahia Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "ACM Neto" at 54%, followed by "Jerônimo Rodrigues" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Bahia Governor Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Bahia Governor Election Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Bahia Governor Election Winner" is "ACM Neto" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jerônimo Rodrigues" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Bahia Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.