Polymarket traders price a 60% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate closing 2026 below 1,600, reflecting strong consensus on President Milei's disinflationary reforms sustaining peso stability amid reserve accumulation. The rate hovered near 1,390 ARS/USD as of late April 2026, up modestly year-to-date despite a 12% real appreciation driven by BCRA's $5.4 billion in dollar purchases and projected $30 billion inflows from agro and energy sectors. March inflation hit 3.4% month-over-month—the highest in 2026 so far—but remains on track for 30% annual averages, outpacing expected 17% nominal depreciation. Higher brackets like 1,900–1,999 (20.4%) and 2,000+ (19.9%) capture risks from potential policy slippage or external shocks, with April inflation data due mid-May as the next key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$17,712 Vol.
$17,712 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1600.00
73%
1600.00–1699.99
12%
1700.00–1799.99
19%
1800.00–1899.99
16%
1900.00–1999.99
19%
2000.00+
19%
$17,712 Vol.
$17,712 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1600.00
$1,829 Vol.
73%
1600.00–1699.99
$1,318 Vol.
12%
1700.00–1799.99
$1,150 Vol.
19%
1800.00–1899.99
$1,037 Vol.
16%
1900.00–1999.99
$11,105 Vol.
19%
2000.00+
$1,273 Vol.
19%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a 60% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate closing 2026 below 1,600, reflecting strong consensus on President Milei's disinflationary reforms sustaining peso stability amid reserve accumulation. The rate hovered near 1,390 ARS/USD as of late April 2026, up modestly year-to-date despite a 12% real appreciation driven by BCRA's $5.4 billion in dollar purchases and projected $30 billion inflows from agro and energy sectors. March inflation hit 3.4% month-over-month—the highest in 2026 so far—but remains on track for 30% annual averages, outpacing expected 17% nominal depreciation. Higher brackets like 1,900–1,999 (20.4%) and 2,000+ (19.9%) capture risks from potential policy slippage or external shocks, with April inflation data due mid-May as the next key catalyst.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$17,712End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a 60% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate closing 2026 below 1,600, reflecting strong consensus on President Milei's disinflationary reforms sustaining peso stability amid reserve accumulation. The rate hovered near 1,390 ARS/USD as of late April 2026, up modestly year-to-date despite a 12% real appreciation driven by BCRA's $5.4 billion in dollar purchases and projected $30 billion inflows from agro and energy sectors. March inflation hit 3.4% month-over-month—the highest in 2026 so far—but remains on track for 30% annual averages, outpacing expected 17% nominal depreciation. Higher brackets like 1,900–1,999 (20.4%) and 2,000+ (19.9%) capture risks from potential policy slippage or external shocks, with April inflation data due mid-May as the next key catalyst.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$17,712End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 60% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate closing 2026 below 1,600, reflecting strong consensus on President Milei's disinflationary reforms sustaining peso stability amid reserve accumulation. The rate hovered near 1,390 ARS/USD as of late April 2026, up modestly year-to-date despite a 12% real appreciation driven by BCRA's $5.4 billion in dollar purchases and projected $30 billion inflows from agro and energy sectors. March inflation hit 3.4% month-over-month—the highest in 2026 so far—but remains on track for 30% annual averages, outpacing expected 17% nominal depreciation. Higher brackets like 1,900–1,999 (20.4%) and 2,000+ (19.9%) capture risks from potential policy slippage or external shocks, with April inflation data due mid-May as the next key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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