Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate, near 1,430 in mid-June 2026, trades within an inflation-linked crawling band introduced in January that widens monthly by lagged CPI prints, supporting gradual depreciation while the central bank accumulates reserves ahead of roughly $19–20 billion in 2026 debt maturities. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 1,600 threshold because consensus forecasts from BBVA Research and MUFG project end-2026 levels near 1,760–1,800, yet sustained disinflation and stronger reserve inflows could keep the rate below 1,600. Key swing factors include the pace of monthly inflation adjustments, IMF-supported reserve purchases, and any acceleration in export earnings from energy and agriculture. The narrow gap between the sub-1,600 and 1,600–1,699 brackets reflects trader uncertainty over whether the band will deliver the mid-1,500s path priced by some models or push toward the higher end of institutional projections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$18,607 Vol.
$18,607 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1600.00
42%
1600.00–1699.99
48%
1700.00–1799.99
7%
1800.00–1899.99
4%
1900.00–1999.99
2%
2000.00+
7%
$18,607 Vol.
$18,607 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1600.00
$2,008 Vol.
42%
1600.00–1699.99
$1,468 Vol.
48%
1700.00–1799.99
$1,222 Vol.
7%
1800.00–1899.99
$1,114 Vol.
4%
1900.00–1999.99
$11,360 Vol.
2%
2000.00+
$1,435 Vol.
7%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate, near 1,430 in mid-June 2026, trades within an inflation-linked crawling band introduced in January that widens monthly by lagged CPI prints, supporting gradual depreciation while the central bank accumulates reserves ahead of roughly $19–20 billion in 2026 debt maturities. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 1,600 threshold because consensus forecasts from BBVA Research and MUFG project end-2026 levels near 1,760–1,800, yet sustained disinflation and stronger reserve inflows could keep the rate below 1,600. Key swing factors include the pace of monthly inflation adjustments, IMF-supported reserve purchases, and any acceleration in export earnings from energy and agriculture. The narrow gap between the sub-1,600 and 1,600–1,699 brackets reflects trader uncertainty over whether the band will deliver the mid-1,500s path priced by some models or push toward the higher end of institutional projections.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$18,607End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate, near 1,430 in mid-June 2026, trades within an inflation-linked crawling band introduced in January that widens monthly by lagged CPI prints, supporting gradual depreciation while the central bank accumulates reserves ahead of roughly $19–20 billion in 2026 debt maturities. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 1,600 threshold because consensus forecasts from BBVA Research and MUFG project end-2026 levels near 1,760–1,800, yet sustained disinflation and stronger reserve inflows could keep the rate below 1,600. Key swing factors include the pace of monthly inflation adjustments, IMF-supported reserve purchases, and any acceleration in export earnings from energy and agriculture. The narrow gap between the sub-1,600 and 1,600–1,699 brackets reflects trader uncertainty over whether the band will deliver the mid-1,500s path priced by some models or push toward the higher end of institutional projections.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$18,607End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate, near 1,430 in mid-June 2026, trades within an inflation-linked crawling band introduced in January that widens monthly by lagged CPI prints, supporting gradual depreciation while the central bank accumulates reserves ahead of roughly $19–20 billion in 2026 debt maturities. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 1,600 threshold because consensus forecasts from BBVA Research and MUFG project end-2026 levels near 1,760–1,800, yet sustained disinflation and stronger reserve inflows could keep the rate below 1,600. Key swing factors include the pace of monthly inflation adjustments, IMF-supported reserve purchases, and any acceleration in export earnings from energy and agriculture. The narrow gap between the sub-1,600 and 1,600–1,699 brackets reflects trader uncertainty over whether the band will deliver the mid-1,500s path priced by some models or push toward the higher end of institutional projections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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