The leading 1,600+ outcome at 50% implied probability reflects trader expectations for continued gradual depreciation under Argentina’s inflation-linked crawling band regime, introduced in January 2026 and currently near 1,430 ARS per USD. Monthly band expansion tied to lagged inflation, combined with central bank dollar purchases to rebuild reserves ahead of roughly $19–20 billion in 2026 debt maturities, supports a path toward the mid-1,500s to low-1,600s or higher by year-end. Recent May inflation of 2.1% signals ongoing disinflation that could moderate the crawl pace, while fiscal surpluses, IMF program compliance, and post-election political stability reduce abrupt adjustment risks. Key near-term catalysts include reserve accumulation data and upcoming debt refinancing milestones.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1600.00+ 47%
1400.00–1449.99 8.9%
1550.00–1599.99 7.3%
1350.00–1399.99 6.2%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1250.00
4%
1250.00–1299.99
6%
1300.00–1349.99
2%
1350.00–1399.99
6%
1400.00–1449.99
9%
1450.00–1499.99
6%
1500.00–1549.99
5%
1550.00–1599.99
7%
1600.00+
50%
1600.00+ 47%
1400.00–1449.99 8.9%
1550.00–1599.99 7.3%
1350.00–1399.99 6.2%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1250.00
$435 Vol.
4%
1250.00–1299.99
$638 Vol.
6%
1300.00–1349.99
$606 Vol.
2%
1350.00–1399.99
$619 Vol.
6%
1400.00–1449.99
$1,041 Vol.
9%
1450.00–1499.99
$1,113 Vol.
6%
1500.00–1549.99
$957 Vol.
5%
1550.00–1599.99
$565 Vol.
7%
1600.00+
$1,672 Vol.
50%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The leading 1,600+ outcome at 50% implied probability reflects trader expectations for continued gradual depreciation under Argentina’s inflation-linked crawling band regime, introduced in January 2026 and currently near 1,430 ARS per USD. Monthly band expansion tied to lagged inflation, combined with central bank dollar purchases to rebuild reserves ahead of roughly $19–20 billion in 2026 debt maturities, supports a path toward the mid-1,500s to low-1,600s or higher by year-end. Recent May inflation of 2.1% signals ongoing disinflation that could moderate the crawl pace, while fiscal surpluses, IMF program compliance, and post-election political stability reduce abrupt adjustment risks. Key near-term catalysts include reserve accumulation data and upcoming debt refinancing milestones.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volume
$7,646End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The leading 1,600+ outcome at 50% implied probability reflects trader expectations for continued gradual depreciation under Argentina’s inflation-linked crawling band regime, introduced in January 2026 and currently near 1,430 ARS per USD. Monthly band expansion tied to lagged inflation, combined with central bank dollar purchases to rebuild reserves ahead of roughly $19–20 billion in 2026 debt maturities, supports a path toward the mid-1,500s to low-1,600s or higher by year-end. Recent May inflation of 2.1% signals ongoing disinflation that could moderate the crawl pace, while fiscal surpluses, IMF program compliance, and post-election political stability reduce abrupt adjustment risks. Key near-term catalysts include reserve accumulation data and upcoming debt refinancing milestones.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$7,646End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The leading 1,600+ outcome at 50% implied probability reflects trader expectations for continued gradual depreciation under Argentina’s inflation-linked crawling band regime, introduced in January 2026 and currently near 1,430 ARS per USD. Monthly band expansion tied to lagged inflation, combined with central bank dollar purchases to rebuild reserves ahead of roughly $19–20 billion in 2026 debt maturities, supports a path toward the mid-1,500s to low-1,600s or higher by year-end. Recent May inflation of 2.1% signals ongoing disinflation that could moderate the crawl pace, while fiscal surpluses, IMF program compliance, and post-election political stability reduce abrupt adjustment risks. Key near-term catalysts include reserve accumulation data and upcoming debt refinancing milestones.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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