Preliminary Berkeley Earth data through April 28, 2026, shows a global surface temperature anomaly of approximately 1.25°C above the 1850-1900 baseline for April 2026, positioning it as the third-warmest April on record behind 2024 (warmest) and 2025 (second), driving the market's 88% implied probability on "3rd hottest." Persistently elevated sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, combined with neutral ENSO conditions following El Niño decay, fueled early-month heat, though a late-April cooldown kept it from surpassing prior records. Traders anticipate confirmation from official NASA GISTEMP, NOAA, and Copernicus ERA5 datasets in early May, with minimal upside risk for revisions pushing it to second due to finalized daily observations. This aligns with the ongoing trend of record-challenging Aprils amid anthropogenic climate forcing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
3rd hottest 88.0%
2nd hottest 3.5%
4th or lower 1.1%
1st hottest <1%
$89,097 Vol.
$89,097 Vol.
May 10, 2026
1st hottest
<1%
2nd hottest
3%
3rd hottest
88%
4th or lower
1%
3rd hottest 88.0%
2nd hottest 3.5%
4th or lower 1.1%
1st hottest <1%
$89,097 Vol.
$89,097 Vol.
May 10, 2026
1st hottest
$10,792 Vol.
<1%
2nd hottest
$23,462 Vol.
3%
3rd hottest
$18,886 Vol.
88%
4th or lower
$35,958 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary Berkeley Earth data through April 28, 2026, shows a global surface temperature anomaly of approximately 1.25°C above the 1850-1900 baseline for April 2026, positioning it as the third-warmest April on record behind 2024 (warmest) and 2025 (second), driving the market's 88% implied probability on "3rd hottest." Persistently elevated sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, combined with neutral ENSO conditions following El Niño decay, fueled early-month heat, though a late-April cooldown kept it from surpassing prior records. Traders anticipate confirmation from official NASA GISTEMP, NOAA, and Copernicus ERA5 datasets in early May, with minimal upside risk for revisions pushing it to second due to finalized daily observations. This aligns with the ongoing trend of record-challenging Aprils amid anthropogenic climate forcing.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$89,097End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary Berkeley Earth data through April 28, 2026, shows a global surface temperature anomaly of approximately 1.25°C above the 1850-1900 baseline for April 2026, positioning it as the third-warmest April on record behind 2024 (warmest) and 2025 (second), driving the market's 88% implied probability on "3rd hottest." Persistently elevated sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, combined with neutral ENSO conditions following El Niño decay, fueled early-month heat, though a late-April cooldown kept it from surpassing prior records. Traders anticipate confirmation from official NASA GISTEMP, NOAA, and Copernicus ERA5 datasets in early May, with minimal upside risk for revisions pushing it to second due to finalized daily observations. This aligns with the ongoing trend of record-challenging Aprils amid anthropogenic climate forcing.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$89,097End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary Berkeley Earth data through April 28, 2026, shows a global surface temperature anomaly of approximately 1.25°C above the 1850-1900 baseline for April 2026, positioning it as the third-warmest April on record behind 2024 (warmest) and 2025 (second), driving the market's 88% implied probability on "3rd hottest." Persistently elevated sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, combined with neutral ENSO conditions following El Niño decay, fueled early-month heat, though a late-April cooldown kept it from surpassing prior records. Traders anticipate confirmation from official NASA GISTEMP, NOAA, and Copernicus ERA5 datasets in early May, with minimal upside risk for revisions pushing it to second due to finalized daily observations. This aligns with the ongoing trend of record-challenging Aprils amid anthropogenic climate forcing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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