Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada extended martial law for a 19th consecutive 90-day period starting May 4, 2026, through August 2, prohibiting presidential and parliamentary elections under Article 19 of the martial law statute amid Russia's ongoing invasion. President Zelenskyy remains in office beyond his May 2024 term expiration due to this legal barrier. Earlier 2026 pressures from the Trump administration linked U.S. security guarantees to elections and a peace referendum by mid-May, but Zelenskyy conditioned readiness on a ceasefire, while the Central Election Commission ruled out a fair 2026 vote absent six months post-hostilities preparation. Absent de-escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs, further extensions loom, sustaining trader uncertainty on election timing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUBN reported Ukraine’s refusal to hold presidential elections in 2026 despite U.S.
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
demands, confirming that no election would occur within the market’s window
BBC reported that the parliamentary working group’s draft election bill stalled, and a new poll showed only 11 % support for elections before a cease‑fire, driving the
December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%15%
BBC reported that the parliamentary working group’s draft election bill stalled, and a new poll showed only 11 % support for elections before a cease‑fire, driving the
A senior U.S. official publicly states that the United States will not provide the security guarantees required for a 2025 Ukrainian election, cementing market belief that the
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%3%
A senior U.S. official publicly states that the United States will not provide the security guarantees required for a 2025 Ukrainian election, cementing market belief that the outcome will resolve “No”
Zelensky tells partners that “security guarantees” remain unmet and that any election would have to be postponed beyond 2025, sending the
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%11%
Zelensky tells partners that “security guarantees” remain unmet and that any election would have to be postponed beyond 2025, sending the
| Al Jazeera analysis states that even with a draft law, logistical constraints mean the earliest realistic election date would be March 2026, keeping “Yes” odds low but
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
| Al Jazeera analysis states that even with a draft law, logistical constraints mean the earliest realistic election date would be March 2026, keeping “Yes” odds low but stabilising them ||
Zelensky reiterated that every missile‑delivery agreement must be implemented before any election could be considered, linking election feasibility to military aid timelines
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Zelensky reiterated that every missile‑delivery agreement must be implemented before any election could be considered, linking election feasibility to military aid timelines
| Ukrainian Ministry of Justice publishes a legal opinion confirming that any election called before a formal lift of martial law would be unconstitutional, dampening market
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%5%
| Ukrainian Ministry of Justice publishes a legal opinion confirming that any election called before a formal lift of martial law would be unconstitutional, dampening market optimism ||
Carnegie Endowment analysis (Feb 2026) revealed that presidential‑election legislation was expected by end‑Feb, but noted constitutional prohibition under martial law, pulling
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%6%
Carnegie Endowment analysis (Feb 2026) revealed that presidential‑election legislation was expected by end‑Feb, but noted constitutional prohibition under martial law, pulling “yes” odds down
A Geneva talks “negotiation theatre” comment highlighted widening gaps between Europe and the White House, suggesting no imminent security pact for elections
June 30, 2026 drops to 6%6%
A Geneva talks “negotiation theatre” comment highlighted widening gaps between Europe and the White House, suggesting no imminent security pact for elections
| Carnegie Endowment reports that a parliamentary working group is expected to present draft election legislation by the end of February, reviving hopes of a 2026 vote and lifting
June 30, 2026 jumps to 13%5%
| Carnegie Endowment reports that a parliamentary working group is expected to present draft election legislation by the end of February, reviving hopes of a 2026 vote and lifting “Yes” odds ||
Euromaidan Press reported a KIIS poll (Nov‑Dec 2025) confirming just 10 % favour elections before a cease‑fire and cited the Rada’s resolution reaffirming that elections cannot be
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%5%
Euromaidan Press reported a KIIS poll (Nov‑Dec 2025) confirming just 10 % favour elections before a cease‑fire and cited the Rada’s resolution reaffirming that elections cannot be held under martial law
Reuters reports U.S. negotiators intensify pressure for a 2025 election, but Ukrainian officials cite lack of territorial control as a blocker, pushing the market lower
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%8%
Reuters reports U.S. negotiators intensify pressure for a 2025 election, but Ukrainian officials cite lack of territorial control as a blocker, pushing the market lower
Kyiv’s parliament rejects a draft amendment to allow elections under martial law, confirming that no 2025 election will be legally possible
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%5%
Kyiv’s parliament rejects a draft amendment to allow elections under martial law, confirming that no 2025 election will be legally possible
Zelensky warned that Western “speculations” about elections were unfounded and that Kyiv would not rush a vote without guarantees, dampening market optimism
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%14%
Zelensky warned that Western “speculations” about elections were unfounded and that Kyiv would not rush a vote without guarantees, dampening market optimism
| President Zelenskyy tells a Dublin press conference that “no election will be held before the war ends,” reaffirming the martial‑law ban and driving the|
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%6%
| President Zelenskyy tells a Dublin press conference that “no election will be held before the war ends,” reaffirming the martial‑law ban and driving the|
Kyiv Post noted a poll showing only 9 % of Ukrainians support elections before a cease‑fire, dampening market optimism
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%10%
Kyiv Post noted a poll showing only 9 % of Ukrainians support elections before a cease‑fire, dampening market optimism
Ukrainian parliament passed a new energy‑conservation law but made no progress on election legislation, underscoring legislative focus away from voting
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%6%
Ukrainian parliament passed a new energy‑conservation law but made no progress on election legislation, underscoring legislative focus away from voting
| Follow‑up Reuters analysis notes that the draft election law faces strong opposition in the Rada and is unlikely to pass before the end of 2025, sending “Yes” odds sharply lower
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%6%
| Follow‑up Reuters analysis notes that the draft election law faces strong opposition in the Rada and is unlikely to pass before the end of 2025, sending “Yes” odds sharply lower ||
The Verkhovna Rada’s special working group held its first session on drafting a law to allow presidential elections under martial law
December 31, 2026 rises to 47%4%
The Verkhovna Rada’s special working group held its first session on drafting a law to allow presidential elections under martial law
Trump repeats that Ukraine must hold elections now, prompting Zelensky to call the demand “unreasonable” and further delaying any concrete timetable
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%4%
Trump repeats that Ukraine must hold elections now, prompting Zelensky to call the demand “unreasonable” and further delaying any concrete timetable
Zelensky ordered the Verkhovna Rada to give a clear answer on holding elections under martial law, emphasizing dependence on “partners” for security guarantees
June 30, 2026 dips to 30%1%
Zelensky ordered the Verkhovna Rada to give a clear answer on holding elections under martial law, emphasizing dependence on “partners” for security guarantees
BBC reported Zelenskyy declaring Ukraine “ready for elections” after U.S.
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%7%
President Trump’s pressure, boosting confidence that an election might be scheduled before year‑end
SOCIS poll shows former commander‑in‑chief Valery Zaluzhny would win 64 % against Zelensky’s 36 % in a hypothetical runoff, underscoring political risk for the incumbent
SOCIS poll shows former commander‑in‑chief Valery Zaluzhny would win 64 % against Zelensky’s 36 % in a hypothetical runoff, underscoring political risk for the incumbent
CNN explainer quoted President Zelenskyy saying Ukraine could hold elections in 60‑90 days if security guarantees were provided, prompting a brief rise in “yes” odds
December 31, 2026 rises to 50%3%
CNN explainer quoted President Zelenskyy saying Ukraine could hold elections in 60‑90 days if security guarantees were provided, prompting a brief rise in “yes” odds
Zelensky orders the Verkhovna Rada to answer “Washington speculations” on elections, signalling no firm schedule yet
December 31, 2026 rises to 47%2%
Zelensky orders the Verkhovna Rada to answer “Washington speculations” on elections, signalling no firm schedule yet
| CNN explainer reports President Zelenskyy says Ukraine could hold elections in the “next 60‑90 days” only if security guarantees are met, prompting a short‑term|
June 30, 2026 dips to 30%4%
| CNN explainer reports President Zelenskyy says Ukraine could hold elections in the “next 60‑90 days” only if security guarantees are met, prompting a short‑term|
Reuters reported U.S. diplomats pressing Kyiv to schedule elections soon, while Russia warned it would not recognise any result, adding geopolitical risk
June 30, 2026 drops to 31%10%
Reuters reported U.S. diplomats pressing Kyiv to schedule elections soon, while Russia warned it would not recognise any result, adding geopolitical risk
Zelensky told U.S. officials that Ukraine could organise elections within 60‑90 days if Washington provided security guarantees, raising hopes for a 2025 vote
June 30, 2026 surges to 41%22%
Zelensky told U.S. officials that Ukraine could organise elections within 60‑90 days if Washington provided security guarantees, raising hopes for a 2025 vote
Zelensky announces he will meet Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and reiterates readiness for elections in 60‑90 days, but notes martial‑law restrictions
December 31, 2026 dips to 45%2%
Zelensky announces he will meet Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and reiterates readiness for elections in 60‑90 days, but notes martial‑law restrictions
U.S. diplomats publicly pressure Kyiv to schedule elections “as soon as possible,” raising expectations of a 2025 vote
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%8%
U.S. diplomats publicly pressure Kyiv to schedule elections “as soon as possible,” raising expectations of a 2025 vote
| Ukrainian parliament’s special working group releases a draft law that would allow elections to be called within 30 days of a martial‑law lift, sparking a brief rally in “Yes”
June 30, 2026 surges to 38%16%
| Ukrainian parliament’s special working group releases a draft law that would allow elections to be called within 30 days of a martial‑law lift, sparking a brief rally in “Yes” odds ||
Ukraine’s OSCE‑PA seminar in Istanbul highlighted “pre‑election preparation” and stressed that elections could only happen after martial law ends
December 31, 2026 drops to 47%5%
Ukraine’s OSCE‑PA seminar in Istanbul highlighted “pre‑election preparation” and stressed that elections could only happen after martial law ends
Zelensky says elections could be held only “within 60‑90 days if security guarantees are provided” and asks parliament to draft law changes
December 31, 2026 rises to 52%1%
Zelensky says elections could be held only “within 60‑90 days if security guarantees are provided” and asks parliament to draft law changes
| OSCE Parliamentary Assembly meeting in Istanbul highlights Ukraine’s “post‑conflict election readiness” but notes that no concrete timetable exists, keeping optimism modest ||
June 30, 2026 rises to 22%1%
| OSCE Parliamentary Assembly meeting in Istanbul highlights Ukraine’s “post‑conflict election readiness” but notes that no concrete timetable exists, keeping optimism modest ||
Zelensky announced he was ready to hold elections under martial law and asked parliament to draft legal changes, signalling a possible 60‑90‑day timetable
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%8%
Zelensky announced he was ready to hold elections under martial law and asked parliament to draft legal changes, signalling a possible 60‑90‑day timetable
Donald Trump publicly urged Kyiv to hold a presidential election “now,” reviving debate over voting during wartime
June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%24%
Donald Trump publicly urged Kyiv to hold a presidential election “now,” reviving debate over voting during wartime
| Opposition leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko publicly state they will continue to oppose any wartime elections, citing legal bans ||
June 30, 2026 drops to 21%6%
| Opposition leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko publicly state they will continue to oppose any wartime elections, citing legal bans ||
| Verkhovna Rada passes a resolution reaffirming that elections are prohibited during martial law and pledges to hold a presidential election only after the war ends ||
June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%24%
| Verkhovna Rada passes a resolution reaffirming that elections are prohibited during martial law and pledges to hold a presidential election only after the war ends ||
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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