Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45.5% implied probability for UK annual GDP growth of 0-1% in 2026, closely contested by 36.4% for 5%+ and 26.0% for 4-5%, reflecting uncertainty over geopolitical risks offsetting nascent recovery signals. The Bank of England's April 2026 Monetary Policy Report projects subdued quarterly growth—0.5% in Q1 and 0.1% in Q2—amid Middle East energy shocks pushing CPI inflation to 3.3% by Q3 and unemployment to 5.1%, aligning with OBR's 1.1% full-year forecast and consensus around 0.9%. February's stronger-than-expected 0.5% monthly GDP beat supports upside bets, but sticky inflation and supply disruptions favor low-growth positioning. Key swing factors include May 14 Q1 GDP release, conflict resolution, and June BoE meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado2-3% 6.0%
3-4% 4.2%
<0 0
0-1% 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 feb 2027
<0
35%
0-1%
55%
1-2%
32%
2-3%
7%
3-4%
8%
4-5%
38%
5% o más
39%
2-3% 6.0%
3-4% 4.2%
<0 0
0-1% 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 feb 2027
<0
$345 Vol.
35%
0-1%
$381 Vol.
55%
1-2%
$210 Vol.
32%
2-3%
$247 Vol.
7%
3-4%
$201 Vol.
8%
4-5%
$413 Vol.
38%
5% o más
$252 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45.5% implied probability for UK annual GDP growth of 0-1% in 2026, closely contested by 36.4% for 5%+ and 26.0% for 4-5%, reflecting uncertainty over geopolitical risks offsetting nascent recovery signals. The Bank of England's April 2026 Monetary Policy Report projects subdued quarterly growth—0.5% in Q1 and 0.1% in Q2—amid Middle East energy shocks pushing CPI inflation to 3.3% by Q3 and unemployment to 5.1%, aligning with OBR's 1.1% full-year forecast and consensus around 0.9%. February's stronger-than-expected 0.5% monthly GDP beat supports upside bets, but sticky inflation and supply disruptions favor low-growth positioning. Key swing factors include May 14 Q1 GDP release, conflict resolution, and June BoE meeting.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volumen
$2,048Fecha de finalización
12 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45.5% implied probability for UK annual GDP growth of 0-1% in 2026, closely contested by 36.4% for 5%+ and 26.0% for 4-5%, reflecting uncertainty over geopolitical risks offsetting nascent recovery signals. The Bank of England's April 2026 Monetary Policy Report projects subdued quarterly growth—0.5% in Q1 and 0.1% in Q2—amid Middle East energy shocks pushing CPI inflation to 3.3% by Q3 and unemployment to 5.1%, aligning with OBR's 1.1% full-year forecast and consensus around 0.9%. February's stronger-than-expected 0.5% monthly GDP beat supports upside bets, but sticky inflation and supply disruptions favor low-growth positioning. Key swing factors include May 14 Q1 GDP release, conflict resolution, and June BoE meeting.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$2,048Fecha de finalización
12 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45.5% implied probability for UK annual GDP growth of 0-1% in 2026, closely contested by 36.4% for 5%+ and 26.0% for 4-5%, reflecting uncertainty over geopolitical risks offsetting nascent recovery signals. The Bank of England's April 2026 Monetary Policy Report projects subdued quarterly growth—0.5% in Q1 and 0.1% in Q2—amid Middle East energy shocks pushing CPI inflation to 3.3% by Q3 and unemployment to 5.1%, aligning with OBR's 1.1% full-year forecast and consensus around 0.9%. February's stronger-than-expected 0.5% monthly GDP beat supports upside bets, but sticky inflation and supply disruptions favor low-growth positioning. Key swing factors include May 14 Q1 GDP release, conflict resolution, and June BoE meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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