Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton head into the May 26 Republican primary runoff with trader consensus implying a razor-thin margin, pricing Cornyn under 3% ahead at 30.8% and Paxton 6–9% at 29.5%, amid conflicting mid-April polls showing Paxton up 48–40 (TPOR) or Cornyn ahead 44–43 (co/efficient). Paxton's appeal to the Trump-aligned base clashes with Cornyn's incumbency advantage, superior fundraising ($8 million vs. $2.6 million cash-on-hand), and heavy establishment ad spending, while President Trump's unissued endorsement—promised post-March 3 primary—keeps dynamics fluid. Low-turnout runoffs amplify Wesley Hunt's 13% primary voters; separation hinges on early voting (starting May 16), late Trump backing, or attack ad impacts testing general election viability against Democrat James Talarico.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCornyn <3% 30.6%
Cornyn 3–6% 22%
Paxton 6–9% 22%
Cornyn 6–9% 16.0%
$57,155 Vol.
$57,155 Vol.
25 may 2026
Paxton 9%+
15%
Paxton 6–9%
22%
Paxton 3–6%
15%
Paxton <3%
18%
Cornyn <3%
31%
Cornyn 3–6%
22%
Cornyn 6–9%
16%
Cornyn 9%+
6%
Cornyn <3% 30.6%
Cornyn 3–6% 22%
Paxton 6–9% 22%
Cornyn 6–9% 16.0%
$57,155 Vol.
$57,155 Vol.
25 may 2026
Paxton 9%+
$10,993 Vol.
15%
Paxton 6–9%
$6,525 Vol.
22%
Paxton 3–6%
$5,474 Vol.
15%
Paxton <3%
$6,465 Vol.
18%
Cornyn <3%
$5,174 Vol.
31%
Cornyn 3–6%
$5,237 Vol.
22%
Cornyn 6–9%
$5,307 Vol.
16%
Cornyn 9%+
$11,980 Vol.
6%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton head into the May 26 Republican primary runoff with trader consensus implying a razor-thin margin, pricing Cornyn under 3% ahead at 30.8% and Paxton 6–9% at 29.5%, amid conflicting mid-April polls showing Paxton up 48–40 (TPOR) or Cornyn ahead 44–43 (co/efficient). Paxton's appeal to the Trump-aligned base clashes with Cornyn's incumbency advantage, superior fundraising ($8 million vs. $2.6 million cash-on-hand), and heavy establishment ad spending, while President Trump's unissued endorsement—promised post-March 3 primary—keeps dynamics fluid. Low-turnout runoffs amplify Wesley Hunt's 13% primary voters; separation hinges on early voting (starting May 16), late Trump backing, or attack ad impacts testing general election viability against Democrat James Talarico.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado abierto: Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Volumen
$57,155Fecha de finalización
25 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton head into the May 26 Republican primary runoff with trader consensus implying a razor-thin margin, pricing Cornyn under 3% ahead at 30.8% and Paxton 6–9% at 29.5%, amid conflicting mid-April polls showing Paxton up 48–40 (TPOR) or Cornyn ahead 44–43 (co/efficient). Paxton's appeal to the Trump-aligned base clashes with Cornyn's incumbency advantage, superior fundraising ($8 million vs. $2.6 million cash-on-hand), and heavy establishment ad spending, while President Trump's unissued endorsement—promised post-March 3 primary—keeps dynamics fluid. Low-turnout runoffs amplify Wesley Hunt's 13% primary voters; separation hinges on early voting (starting May 16), late Trump backing, or attack ad impacts testing general election viability against Democrat James Talarico.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$57,155Fecha de finalización
25 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton head into the May 26 Republican primary runoff with trader consensus implying a razor-thin margin, pricing Cornyn under 3% ahead at 30.8% and Paxton 6–9% at 29.5%, amid conflicting mid-April polls showing Paxton up 48–40 (TPOR) or Cornyn ahead 44–43 (co/efficient). Paxton's appeal to the Trump-aligned base clashes with Cornyn's incumbency advantage, superior fundraising ($8 million vs. $2.6 million cash-on-hand), and heavy establishment ad spending, while President Trump's unissued endorsement—promised post-March 3 primary—keeps dynamics fluid. Low-turnout runoffs amplify Wesley Hunt's 13% primary voters; separation hinges on early voting (starting May 16), late Trump backing, or attack ad impacts testing general election viability against Democrat James Talarico.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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