Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027 at 54.5% Yes, reflecting a closely contested stalemate where recent diplomatic signals balance persistent military attrition. Russian President Putin's proposal yesterday for a brief May 9 Victory Day truce, relayed via U.S. President Trump's phone call urging war's end, prompted Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's request for details through Washington, hinting at de-escalation potential amid U.S.-brokered talks. However, ongoing escalations—Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities and record drone interceptions—underscore maximalist positions and frontline deadlock, with no decisive breakthroughs since April intelligence chief Budanov noted converging compromises. Odds could tip higher on substantive negotiation progress or U.S. mediation advances; lower on intensified offensives or stalled diplomacy before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Un alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania para finales de 2027?
¿Un alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania para finales de 2027?
Sí
$150,279 Vol.
$150,279 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Sí
$150,279 Vol.
$150,279 Vol.
31 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027 at 54.5% Yes, reflecting a closely contested stalemate where recent diplomatic signals balance persistent military attrition. Russian President Putin's proposal yesterday for a brief May 9 Victory Day truce, relayed via U.S. President Trump's phone call urging war's end, prompted Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's request for details through Washington, hinting at de-escalation potential amid U.S.-brokered talks. However, ongoing escalations—Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities and record drone interceptions—underscore maximalist positions and frontline deadlock, with no decisive breakthroughs since April intelligence chief Budanov noted converging compromises. Odds could tip higher on substantive negotiation progress or U.S. mediation advances; lower on intensified offensives or stalled diplomacy before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volumen
$150,279Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027 at 54.5% Yes, reflecting a closely contested stalemate where recent diplomatic signals balance persistent military attrition. Russian President Putin's proposal yesterday for a brief May 9 Victory Day truce, relayed via U.S. President Trump's phone call urging war's end, prompted Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's request for details through Washington, hinting at de-escalation potential amid U.S.-brokered talks. However, ongoing escalations—Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities and record drone interceptions—underscore maximalist positions and frontline deadlock, with no decisive breakthroughs since April intelligence chief Budanov noted converging compromises. Odds could tip higher on substantive negotiation progress or U.S. mediation advances; lower on intensified offensives or stalled diplomacy before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$150,279Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027 at 54.5% Yes, reflecting a closely contested stalemate where recent diplomatic signals balance persistent military attrition. Russian President Putin's proposal yesterday for a brief May 9 Victory Day truce, relayed via U.S. President Trump's phone call urging war's end, prompted Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's request for details through Washington, hinting at de-escalation potential amid U.S.-brokered talks. However, ongoing escalations—Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities and record drone interceptions—underscore maximalist positions and frontline deadlock, with no decisive breakthroughs since April intelligence chief Budanov noted converging compromises. Odds could tip higher on substantive negotiation progress or U.S. mediation advances; lower on intensified offensives or stalled diplomacy before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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