Trader consensus reflects near-certainty against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 amid persistent frontline fighting and stalled peace talks, anchored by President Trump's April 29 phone call with Vladimir Putin where a possible truce was discussed but no agreement reached—Putin instead proposed a May 9 Victory Day halt, following the violated Orthodox Easter ceasefire earlier in April. Recent Institute for the Study of War assessments confirm Ukraine has blunted Russia's spring offensive, yet Russian drone strikes and mutual accusations of violations continue, underscoring irreconcilable demands over annexed territories, full withdrawal, and security guarantees. While US mediation persists, core barriers like territorial disputes and escalation risks leave scant room for a pre-deadline deal, barring an unforeseen diplomatic breakthrough.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Un alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania para el 30 de abril de 2026?
¿Un alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania para el 30 de abril de 2026?
Sí
$9,438,109 Vol.
$9,438,109 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Sí
$9,438,109 Vol.
$9,438,109 Vol.
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 amid persistent frontline fighting and stalled peace talks, anchored by President Trump's April 29 phone call with Vladimir Putin where a possible truce was discussed but no agreement reached—Putin instead proposed a May 9 Victory Day halt, following the violated Orthodox Easter ceasefire earlier in April. Recent Institute for the Study of War assessments confirm Ukraine has blunted Russia's spring offensive, yet Russian drone strikes and mutual accusations of violations continue, underscoring irreconcilable demands over annexed territories, full withdrawal, and security guarantees. While US mediation persists, core barriers like territorial disputes and escalation risks leave scant room for a pre-deadline deal, barring an unforeseen diplomatic breakthrough.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volumen
$9,438,109Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 amid persistent frontline fighting and stalled peace talks, anchored by President Trump's April 29 phone call with Vladimir Putin where a possible truce was discussed but no agreement reached—Putin instead proposed a May 9 Victory Day halt, following the violated Orthodox Easter ceasefire earlier in April. Recent Institute for the Study of War assessments confirm Ukraine has blunted Russia's spring offensive, yet Russian drone strikes and mutual accusations of violations continue, underscoring irreconcilable demands over annexed territories, full withdrawal, and security guarantees. While US mediation persists, core barriers like territorial disputes and escalation risks leave scant room for a pre-deadline deal, barring an unforeseen diplomatic breakthrough.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$9,458,352Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 amid persistent frontline fighting and stalled peace talks, anchored by President Trump's April 29 phone call with Vladimir Putin where a possible truce was discussed but no agreement reached—Putin instead proposed a May 9 Victory Day halt, following the violated Orthodox Easter ceasefire earlier in April. Recent Institute for the Study of War assessments confirm Ukraine has blunted Russia's spring offensive, yet Russian drone strikes and mutual accusations of violations continue, underscoring irreconcilable demands over annexed territories, full withdrawal, and security guarantees. While US mediation persists, core barriers like territorial disputes and escalation risks leave scant room for a pre-deadline deal, barring an unforeseen diplomatic breakthrough.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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