Derek Merrin commands 81% trader consensus in the OH-09 Republican primary, five days before the May 5 vote, driven by a mid-April JL Partners poll showing his 33% lead among likely voters—double Josh Williams' 14%—in a fragmented field favoring consolidation toward the frontrunner. The National Republican Congressional Committee's endorsement, superior cash-on-hand ($637,000), and recent TV ad launch (April 25) position Merrin as the establishment pick to challenge Democratic incumbent Marcy Kaptur in the redrawn, Trump-won district. Williams holds 17% with Jim Jordan's backing and top Q4 fundraising, while Madison Sheahan's 2% reflects her ICE background amid mutual scandals and PAC attacks roiling the top three since the April 20 debate. Late deciders and turnout will decide.