Recent elevated global seismicity, including multiple days in early June 2026 with nine or more magnitude 5.0+ events—well above the typical daily average of roughly five—supports trader emphasis on higher weekly counts for magnitude 5.5+ quakes. The Pacific Ring of Fire remains active, with recent clusters near the Philippines, Indonesia, and Tonga reflecting ongoing tectonic plate motion along subduction zones. USGS data show weekly totals of magnitude 5.5+ events often range 6–12 depending on aftershock sequences and background rates, creating genuine uncertainty around exact thresholds. No major new forecasts alter this picture, but sustained above-average activity through mid-June keeps implied odds favoring nine or more events over lower outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 5.5 o más del 15 al 21 de junio?
>9 44%
9 14%
8 11%
≤5 11%
≤5
11%
6
10%
7
10%
8
11%
9
14%
>9
44%
>9 44%
9 14%
8 11%
≤5 11%
≤5
11%
6
10%
7
10%
8
11%
9
14%
>9
44%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Jun 12, 2026, 1:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent elevated global seismicity, including multiple days in early June 2026 with nine or more magnitude 5.0+ events—well above the typical daily average of roughly five—supports trader emphasis on higher weekly counts for magnitude 5.5+ quakes. The Pacific Ring of Fire remains active, with recent clusters near the Philippines, Indonesia, and Tonga reflecting ongoing tectonic plate motion along subduction zones. USGS data show weekly totals of magnitude 5.5+ events often range 6–12 depending on aftershock sequences and background rates, creating genuine uncertainty around exact thresholds. No major new forecasts alter this picture, but sustained above-average activity through mid-June keeps implied odds favoring nine or more events over lower outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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