The 84.5% market-implied probability for no megaquake—M8.0 or greater per USGS records—by June 30 reflects the historical baseline of roughly one such event annually worldwide, with none recorded since late 2025 despite four months elapsed. Trader sentiment solidified after Japan's April 20 M7.4 offshore earthquake near Miyako prompted a short-term Japan Meteorological Agency advisory elevating M8+ odds to 1% for the following week, which expired April 27 without escalation or aftershocks signaling rupture on major faults like the Japan Trench. Current USGS monitoring shows normal global seismic activity across subduction zones, absent precursors like swarms or rapid strain buildup. Upcoming real-time data releases could shift consensus if unusual patterns emerge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Megaquake para el 30 de junio?
¿Megaquake para el 30 de junio?
Sí
$62,548 Vol.
$62,548 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$62,548 Vol.
$62,548 Vol.
30 jun 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The 84.5% market-implied probability for no megaquake—M8.0 or greater per USGS records—by June 30 reflects the historical baseline of roughly one such event annually worldwide, with none recorded since late 2025 despite four months elapsed. Trader sentiment solidified after Japan's April 20 M7.4 offshore earthquake near Miyako prompted a short-term Japan Meteorological Agency advisory elevating M8+ odds to 1% for the following week, which expired April 27 without escalation or aftershocks signaling rupture on major faults like the Japan Trench. Current USGS monitoring shows normal global seismic activity across subduction zones, absent precursors like swarms or rapid strain buildup. Upcoming real-time data releases could shift consensus if unusual patterns emerge.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volumen
$62,548Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The 84.5% market-implied probability for no megaquake—M8.0 or greater per USGS records—by June 30 reflects the historical baseline of roughly one such event annually worldwide, with none recorded since late 2025 despite four months elapsed. Trader sentiment solidified after Japan's April 20 M7.4 offshore earthquake near Miyako prompted a short-term Japan Meteorological Agency advisory elevating M8+ odds to 1% for the following week, which expired April 27 without escalation or aftershocks signaling rupture on major faults like the Japan Trench. Current USGS monitoring shows normal global seismic activity across subduction zones, absent precursors like swarms or rapid strain buildup. Upcoming real-time data releases could shift consensus if unusual patterns emerge.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$62,548Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 84.5% market-implied probability for no megaquake—M8.0 or greater per USGS records—by June 30 reflects the historical baseline of roughly one such event annually worldwide, with none recorded since late 2025 despite four months elapsed. Trader sentiment solidified after Japan's April 20 M7.4 offshore earthquake near Miyako prompted a short-term Japan Meteorological Agency advisory elevating M8+ odds to 1% for the following week, which expired April 27 without escalation or aftershocks signaling rupture on major faults like the Japan Trench. Current USGS monitoring shows normal global seismic activity across subduction zones, absent precursors like swarms or rapid strain buildup. Upcoming real-time data releases could shift consensus if unusual patterns emerge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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