Trader consensus prices an 86.5% probability against a China-Japan military clash before 2027, anchored by both nations' restraint amid persistent East China Sea territorial disputes over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. China's Coast Guard conducted record patrols—357 days in 2025—prompting Japanese protests and fisherman advisories, while late April 2026 saw heated UN Security Council exchanges with Beijing denouncing Tokyo's South China Sea remarks and alliances. Earlier radar locks by Chinese jets on Japanese aircraft in December 2025 and diplomatic crises since November remain non-kinetic gray-zone actions, deterred by U.S.-Japan security ties, economic interdependence, and Japan's constitutional limits on offensive military use. No major escalations in the past 30 days signal continued de facto stability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$635,143 Vol.
$635,143 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$635,143 Vol.
$635,143 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 86.5% probability against a China-Japan military clash before 2027, anchored by both nations' restraint amid persistent East China Sea territorial disputes over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. China's Coast Guard conducted record patrols—357 days in 2025—prompting Japanese protests and fisherman advisories, while late April 2026 saw heated UN Security Council exchanges with Beijing denouncing Tokyo's South China Sea remarks and alliances. Earlier radar locks by Chinese jets on Japanese aircraft in December 2025 and diplomatic crises since November remain non-kinetic gray-zone actions, deterred by U.S.-Japan security ties, economic interdependence, and Japan's constitutional limits on offensive military use. No major escalations in the past 30 days signal continued de facto stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ET
Volumen
$635,143Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 86.5% probability against a China-Japan military clash before 2027, anchored by both nations' restraint amid persistent East China Sea territorial disputes over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. China's Coast Guard conducted record patrols—357 days in 2025—prompting Japanese protests and fisherman advisories, while late April 2026 saw heated UN Security Council exchanges with Beijing denouncing Tokyo's South China Sea remarks and alliances. Earlier radar locks by Chinese jets on Japanese aircraft in December 2025 and diplomatic crises since November remain non-kinetic gray-zone actions, deterred by U.S.-Japan security ties, economic interdependence, and Japan's constitutional limits on offensive military use. No major escalations in the past 30 days signal continued de facto stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$635,143Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 86.5% probability against a China-Japan military clash before 2027, anchored by both nations' restraint amid persistent East China Sea territorial disputes over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. China's Coast Guard conducted record patrols—357 days in 2025—prompting Japanese protests and fisherman advisories, while late April 2026 saw heated UN Security Council exchanges with Beijing denouncing Tokyo's South China Sea remarks and alliances. Earlier radar locks by Chinese jets on Japanese aircraft in December 2025 and diplomatic crises since November remain non-kinetic gray-zone actions, deterred by U.S.-Japan security ties, economic interdependence, and Japan's constitutional limits on offensive military use. No major escalations in the past 30 days signal continued de facto stability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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