**Claude Opus 4.6 with thinking mode holds an 85% market-implied probability** as the best AI model on June 20 because traders view its established agentic performance, long-horizon reliability, and verified benchmark results as the clearest frontrunner just days before resolution. The variant benefits from incremental refinements in coding, tool use, and self-verification that have kept it competitive against newer releases. Claude Fable 5, released around June 9 as Anthropic’s safeguarded Mythos-class model, sits at 11% as traders weigh its strong early reports on software engineering and reasoning against the short window for broad third-party validation before the cutoff. Other outcomes remain near zero, reflecting limited credible challengers. With deprecation of older Opus 4 variants imminent on June 15 and rapid evaluation cycles typical in frontier AI, the narrow resolution window favors the model with the most accumulated real-world usage data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizadoclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 85%
claude-fable-5 11%
Other 1.3%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 jun 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
85%
claude-fable-5
11%
Other
1%
claude-opus-4-6
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 85%
claude-fable-5 11%
Other 1.3%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 jun 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$3,266 Vol.
85%
claude-fable-5
$2,673 Vol.
11%
Other
$931 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-4-6
$956 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.**Claude Opus 4.6 with thinking mode holds an 85% market-implied probability** as the best AI model on June 20 because traders view its established agentic performance, long-horizon reliability, and verified benchmark results as the clearest frontrunner just days before resolution. The variant benefits from incremental refinements in coding, tool use, and self-verification that have kept it competitive against newer releases. Claude Fable 5, released around June 9 as Anthropic’s safeguarded Mythos-class model, sits at 11% as traders weigh its strong early reports on software engineering and reasoning against the short window for broad third-party validation before the cutoff. Other outcomes remain near zero, reflecting limited credible challengers. With deprecation of older Opus 4 variants imminent on June 15 and rapid evaluation cycles typical in frontier AI, the narrow resolution window favors the model with the most accumulated real-world usage data.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$7,784Fecha de finalización
20 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.**Claude Opus 4.6 with thinking mode holds an 85% market-implied probability** as the best AI model on June 20 because traders view its established agentic performance, long-horizon reliability, and verified benchmark results as the clearest frontrunner just days before resolution. The variant benefits from incremental refinements in coding, tool use, and self-verification that have kept it competitive against newer releases. Claude Fable 5, released around June 9 as Anthropic’s safeguarded Mythos-class model, sits at 11% as traders weigh its strong early reports on software engineering and reasoning against the short window for broad third-party validation before the cutoff. Other outcomes remain near zero, reflecting limited credible challengers. With deprecation of older Opus 4 variants imminent on June 15 and rapid evaluation cycles typical in frontier AI, the narrow resolution window favors the model with the most accumulated real-world usage data.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$7,784Fecha de finalización
20 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Claude Opus 4.6 with thinking mode holds an 85% market-implied probability** as the best AI model on June 20 because traders view its established agentic performance, long-horizon reliability, and verified benchmark results as the clearest frontrunner just days before resolution. The variant benefits from incremental refinements in coding, tool use, and self-verification that have kept it competitive against newer releases. Claude Fable 5, released around June 9 as Anthropic’s safeguarded Mythos-class model, sits at 11% as traders weigh its strong early reports on software engineering and reasoning against the short window for broad third-party validation before the cutoff. Other outcomes remain near zero, reflecting limited credible challengers. With deprecation of older Opus 4 variants imminent on June 15 and rapid evaluation cycles typical in frontier AI, the narrow resolution window favors the model with the most accumulated real-world usage data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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