**Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking leads trader sentiment** at 85.5% implied probability because its adaptive thinking mode, launched in February 2026, delivers reliable long-horizon reasoning and agentic performance that remains the benchmark standard just days before the June 20 resolution. The June 9 release of Claude Fable 5, Anthropic’s new Mythos-class model with state-of-the-art results on complex analytics and extended tasks, has only captured 13.5% as traders await fuller real-world validation and leaderboard confirmation amid the short window to resolution. Other listed variants and competitors trail far behind due to older capabilities or restricted availability. No major new model drops are expected before June 20, keeping focus on these two Anthropic releases and their relative maturity in production use.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizadoclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 86%
claude-fable-5 14%
Other 2.7%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 jun 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
86%
claude-fable-5
14%
Other
3%
claude-opus-4-6
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 86%
claude-fable-5 14%
Other 2.7%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 jun 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$3,370 Vol.
86%
claude-fable-5
$2,806 Vol.
14%
Other
$1,133 Vol.
3%
claude-opus-4-6
$956 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.**Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking leads trader sentiment** at 85.5% implied probability because its adaptive thinking mode, launched in February 2026, delivers reliable long-horizon reasoning and agentic performance that remains the benchmark standard just days before the June 20 resolution. The June 9 release of Claude Fable 5, Anthropic’s new Mythos-class model with state-of-the-art results on complex analytics and extended tasks, has only captured 13.5% as traders await fuller real-world validation and leaderboard confirmation amid the short window to resolution. Other listed variants and competitors trail far behind due to older capabilities or restricted availability. No major new model drops are expected before June 20, keeping focus on these two Anthropic releases and their relative maturity in production use.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$8,225Fecha de finalización
20 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.**Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking leads trader sentiment** at 85.5% implied probability because its adaptive thinking mode, launched in February 2026, delivers reliable long-horizon reasoning and agentic performance that remains the benchmark standard just days before the June 20 resolution. The June 9 release of Claude Fable 5, Anthropic’s new Mythos-class model with state-of-the-art results on complex analytics and extended tasks, has only captured 13.5% as traders await fuller real-world validation and leaderboard confirmation amid the short window to resolution. Other listed variants and competitors trail far behind due to older capabilities or restricted availability. No major new model drops are expected before June 20, keeping focus on these two Anthropic releases and their relative maturity in production use.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$8,225Fecha de finalización
20 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking leads trader sentiment** at 85.5% implied probability because its adaptive thinking mode, launched in February 2026, delivers reliable long-horizon reasoning and agentic performance that remains the benchmark standard just days before the June 20 resolution. The June 9 release of Claude Fable 5, Anthropic’s new Mythos-class model with state-of-the-art results on complex analytics and extended tasks, has only captured 13.5% as traders await fuller real-world validation and leaderboard confirmation amid the short window to resolution. Other listed variants and competitors trail far behind due to older capabilities or restricted availability. No major new model drops are expected before June 20, keeping focus on these two Anthropic releases and their relative maturity in production use.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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