Skip to main content
icon for Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?
Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

icon for Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?
Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

Islam Makhachev 74%

Michael Morales 13%

Leon Edwards 8.4%

Carlos Prates 8.0%

Polymarket

$36,498 Vol.

Islam Makhachev 74%

Michael Morales 13%

Leon Edwards 8.4%

Carlos Prates 8.0%

Polymarket

$36,498 Vol.

Islam Makhachev

$5,271 Vol.

74%

Michael Morales

$1,007 Vol.

13%

Leon Edwards

$649 Vol.

8%

Carlos Prates

$671 Vol.

13%

Ian Machado Garry

$1,674 Vol.

14%

Kamaru Usman

$860 Vol.

3%

Belal Muhammad

$566 Vol.

3%

Shavkat Rakhmonov

$2,649 Vol.

2%

Jack Della Maddalena

$1,339 Vol.

11%

Sean Brady

$904 Vol.

<1%

Joaquin Buckley

$20,907 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Islam Makhachev's overwhelming 74.5% implied probability as reigning UFC welterweight champion and pound-for-pound king stems from his dominant title win over Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322 late last year, followed by a vacated lightweight belt and minimal activity concerns, positioning him for multiple defenses through 2026. Recent confirmation of his training camp start for a first title defense—potentially against Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330 in July or August—has solidified trader consensus on his reign's longevity. Rising contenders like undefeated prospect Michael Morales (21.0%), fresh off statement wins, Garry (13.5%), Carlos Prates (12.8%), and Della Maddalena (11.6%) reflect their recent rankings climbs and big victories over former champ Belal Muhammad, though Makhachev's wrestling clinic and stylistic edges temper upset potential amid a deep division.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$36,498
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Islam Makhachev's overwhelming 74.5% implied probability as reigning UFC welterweight champion and pound-for-pound king stems from his dominant title win over Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322 late last year, followed by a vacated lightweight belt and minimal activity concerns, positioning him for multiple defenses through 2026. Recent confirmation of his training camp start for a first title defense—potentially against Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330 in July or August—has solidified trader consensus on his reign's longevity. Rising contenders like undefeated prospect Michael Morales (21.0%), fresh off statement wins, Garry (13.5%), Carlos Prates (12.8%), and Della Maddalena (11.6%) reflect their recent rankings climbs and big victories over former champ Belal Muhammad, though Makhachev's wrestling clinic and stylistic edges temper upset potential amid a deep division.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$36,498
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Related

icon for Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

48%
icon for Will Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Will Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

71%
icon for Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

73%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Islam Makhachev" at 74%, followed by "Ian Machado Garry" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" has generated $36.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Islam Makhachev" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ian Machado Garry" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.