The January 2026 U.S. military capture of Nicolás Maduro and his subsequent U.S. detention on narco-terrorism charges created the primary catalyst for current trader positioning, installing Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president via National Assembly vote on January 5. Continuity of the Chavista institutional framework, including key military and party figures, combined with U.S. sanctions relief and diplomatic engagement under Rodríguez, has sustained high implied probability for Maduro-aligned outcomes through year-end. Limited progress toward snap elections or opposition-led transition, despite involvement of figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González, keeps their shares low. Upcoming court proceedings and any legislative moves on presidential vacancy or succession remain the main near-term variables that could shift consensus before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro 72.0%
Delcy Rodríguez 17%
María Corina Machado 4.3%
Jorge Rodríguez <1%
$90,881,648 Vol.
$90,881,648 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
72%
Delcy Rodríguez
17%
María Corina Machado
4%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
No Head of State
1%
Edmundo González
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 72.0%
Delcy Rodríguez 17%
María Corina Machado 4.3%
Jorge Rodríguez <1%
$90,881,648 Vol.
$90,881,648 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$1,844,616 Vol.
72%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,640,533 Vol.
17%
María Corina Machado
$1,222,526 Vol.
4%
Jorge Rodríguez
$1,041,542 Vol.
1%
No Head of State
$1,285,014 Vol.
1%
Edmundo González
$1,017,229 Vol.
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$1,895,223 Vol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$951,048 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,504,875 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$696,281 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$5,332,664 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$3,780,508 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$1,106,347 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$8,805,658 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$25,439,277 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$32,318,619 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
The January 2026 U.S. military capture of Nicolás Maduro and his subsequent U.S. detention on narco-terrorism charges created the primary catalyst for current trader positioning, installing Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president via National Assembly vote on January 5. Continuity of the Chavista institutional framework, including key military and party figures, combined with U.S. sanctions relief and diplomatic engagement under Rodríguez, has sustained high implied probability for Maduro-aligned outcomes through year-end. Limited progress toward snap elections or opposition-led transition, despite involvement of figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González, keeps their shares low. Upcoming court proceedings and any legislative moves on presidential vacancy or succession remain the main near-term variables that could shift consensus before December 31.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$90,881,648End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
The January 2026 U.S. military capture of Nicolás Maduro and his subsequent U.S. detention on narco-terrorism charges created the primary catalyst for current trader positioning, installing Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president via National Assembly vote on January 5. Continuity of the Chavista institutional framework, including key military and party figures, combined with U.S. sanctions relief and diplomatic engagement under Rodríguez, has sustained high implied probability for Maduro-aligned outcomes through year-end. Limited progress toward snap elections or opposition-led transition, despite involvement of figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González, keeps their shares low. Upcoming court proceedings and any legislative moves on presidential vacancy or succession remain the main near-term variables that could shift consensus before December 31.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$90,881,648End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The January 2026 U.S. military capture of Nicolás Maduro and his subsequent U.S. detention on narco-terrorism charges created the primary catalyst for current trader positioning, installing Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president via National Assembly vote on January 5. Continuity of the Chavista institutional framework, including key military and party figures, combined with U.S. sanctions relief and diplomatic engagement under Rodríguez, has sustained high implied probability for Maduro-aligned outcomes through year-end. Limited progress toward snap elections or opposition-led transition, despite involvement of figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González, keeps their shares low. Upcoming court proceedings and any legislative moves on presidential vacancy or succession remain the main near-term variables that could shift consensus before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions