Following the U.S. military capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, and his ongoing trial on drug and weapons charges, trader consensus on Polymarket assigns him 67% implied probability as Venezuela's leader by year-end, driven by constitutional disputes over his "temporary absence" status—lacking clear vacancy declaration—and no scheduled elections despite 90-day interim limits expiring. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, sworn in per Supreme Court ruling, holds 20% odds amid recent purges of Maduro allies, diplomatic meetings with Colombia's Petro and Barbados' Mottley, and U.S. sanctions relief enabling normalized commercial flights this week. Opposition leader María Corina Machado's April 20 pledge for year-end return and swift polls supports her 8.5% share, reflecting transitional tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro 66.9%
Delcy Rodríguez 20%
María Corina Machado 9%
Jorge Rodríguez 1.3%
$86,742,613 Vol.
$86,742,613 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
67%
Delcy Rodríguez
20%
María Corina Machado
9%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
No Head of State
1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Edmundo González
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 66.9%
Delcy Rodríguez 20%
María Corina Machado 9%
Jorge Rodríguez 1.3%
$86,742,613 Vol.
$86,742,613 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$1,558,205 Vol.
67%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,562,484 Vol.
20%
María Corina Machado
$1,020,160 Vol.
9%
Jorge Rodríguez
$983,221 Vol.
1%
No Head of State
$966,792 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$768,313 Vol.
<1%
Edmundo González
$718,124 Vol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$890,499 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$654,715 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,218,780 Vol.
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$1,588,584 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$4,908,326 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$8,414,096 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$24,991,671 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$31,972,898 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$3,525,744 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Following the U.S. military capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, and his ongoing trial on drug and weapons charges, trader consensus on Polymarket assigns him 67% implied probability as Venezuela's leader by year-end, driven by constitutional disputes over his "temporary absence" status—lacking clear vacancy declaration—and no scheduled elections despite 90-day interim limits expiring. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, sworn in per Supreme Court ruling, holds 20% odds amid recent purges of Maduro allies, diplomatic meetings with Colombia's Petro and Barbados' Mottley, and U.S. sanctions relief enabling normalized commercial flights this week. Opposition leader María Corina Machado's April 20 pledge for year-end return and swift polls supports her 8.5% share, reflecting transitional tensions.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$86,742,613End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Following the U.S. military capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, and his ongoing trial on drug and weapons charges, trader consensus on Polymarket assigns him 67% implied probability as Venezuela's leader by year-end, driven by constitutional disputes over his "temporary absence" status—lacking clear vacancy declaration—and no scheduled elections despite 90-day interim limits expiring. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, sworn in per Supreme Court ruling, holds 20% odds amid recent purges of Maduro allies, diplomatic meetings with Colombia's Petro and Barbados' Mottley, and U.S. sanctions relief enabling normalized commercial flights this week. Opposition leader María Corina Machado's April 20 pledge for year-end return and swift polls supports her 8.5% share, reflecting transitional tensions.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$86,742,613End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Following the U.S. military capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, and his ongoing trial on drug and weapons charges, trader consensus on Polymarket assigns him 67% implied probability as Venezuela's leader by year-end, driven by constitutional disputes over his "temporary absence" status—lacking clear vacancy declaration—and no scheduled elections despite 90-day interim limits expiring. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, sworn in per Supreme Court ruling, holds 20% odds amid recent purges of Maduro allies, diplomatic meetings with Colombia's Petro and Barbados' Mottley, and U.S. sanctions relief enabling normalized commercial flights this week. Opposition leader María Corina Machado's April 20 pledge for year-end return and swift polls supports her 8.5% share, reflecting transitional tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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