Arsenal FC holds a 57.5% implied probability as trader consensus favorite for the Champions League semi-final second leg at Emirates Stadium, following a cagey 1-1 first-leg draw at Atlético Madrid where traded penalties—Viktor Gyökeres for Arsenal, Julián Álvarez for the hosts—left the tie evenly poised. Arsenal's edge stems from home advantage, unbeaten UCL run this season, and a dominant 4-0 league-phase win over Atlético earlier, bolstered by the visitors' mounting injury crisis: José María Giménez, Pablo Barrios, and Nico González ruled out, with doubts over others after Barrios' weekend knock. Atlético's defensive resilience keeps draw (24.5%) and upset (17.5%) viable amid both sides' historical knockout struggles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIf Arsenal FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: Apr 22, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.uefa.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If Arsenal FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: Apr 22, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.uefa.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Arsenal FC holds a 57.5% implied probability as trader consensus favorite for the Champions League semi-final second leg at Emirates Stadium, following a cagey 1-1 first-leg draw at Atlético Madrid where traded penalties—Viktor Gyökeres for Arsenal, Julián Álvarez for the hosts—left the tie evenly poised. Arsenal's edge stems from home advantage, unbeaten UCL run this season, and a dominant 4-0 league-phase win over Atlético earlier, bolstered by the visitors' mounting injury crisis: José María Giménez, Pablo Barrios, and Nico González ruled out, with doubts over others after Barrios' weekend knock. Atlético's defensive resilience keeps draw (24.5%) and upset (17.5%) viable amid both sides' historical knockout struggles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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