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Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?

icon for Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?

Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?

63% chance
Polymarket

$267,097 Vol.

63% chance
Polymarket

$267,097 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arsenal is officially crowned the winner of at least one of the following competitions: the 2025–26 English Premier League, UEFA Champions League, Carabao Cup or FA Cup. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for Arsenal to win any of the four listed competitions (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from winning, or eliminated from, all four competitions), the market will immediately resolve to "No". If one or more of the listed competitions is canceled or is otherwise not completed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the results of the listed competitions that have been completed at that time. If Arsenal has not won any listed competition by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the organizers of the listed competitions; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Arsenal's lead atop the Premier League standings with 73 points from 34 matches (+38 goal difference), three clear of Manchester City who have a game in hand, anchors the 62.5% implied probability for winning a trophy, as traders weigh their title race edge against four remaining fixtures. Still alive in Champions League semi-finals after a gritty 1-1 first-leg draw at Atlético Madrid on April 29 amid penalty controversy, their unbeaten European run (8 wins in league phase) bolsters sentiment despite a mounting injury crisis sidelining Bukayo Saka (Achilles), Martin Ødegaard (knee), Declan Rice, and others. Elimination from FA Cup and Carabao Cup leaves only these paths, with recent Premier League wins sustaining momentum but key absences heightening upset risk.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arsenal is officially crowned the winner of at least one of the following competitions: the 2025–26 English Premier League, UEFA Champions League, Carabao Cup or FA Cup. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for Arsenal to win any of the four listed competitions (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from winning, or eliminated from, all four competitions), the market will immediately resolve to "No".

If one or more of the listed competitions is canceled or is otherwise not completed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the results of the listed competitions that have been completed at that time. If Arsenal has not won any listed competition by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the organizers of the listed competitions; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$267,097
End Date
May 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 15, 2026, 3:38 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arsenal is officially crowned the winner of at least one of the following competitions: the 2025–26 English Premier League, UEFA Champions League, Carabao Cup or FA Cup. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for Arsenal to win any of the four listed competitions (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from winning, or eliminated from, all four competitions), the market will immediately resolve to "No". If one or more of the listed competitions is canceled or is otherwise not completed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the results of the listed competitions that have been completed at that time. If Arsenal has not won any listed competition by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the organizers of the listed competitions; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arsenal is officially crowned the winner of at least one of the following competitions: the 2025–26 English Premier League, UEFA Champions League, Carabao Cup or FA Cup. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for Arsenal to win any of the four listed competitions (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from winning, or eliminated from, all four competitions), the market will immediately resolve to "No". If one or more of the listed competitions is canceled or is otherwise not completed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the results of the listed competitions that have been completed at that time. If Arsenal has not won any listed competition by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the organizers of the listed competitions; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Arsenal's lead atop the Premier League standings with 73 points from 34 matches (+38 goal difference), three clear of Manchester City who have a game in hand, anchors the 62.5% implied probability for winning a trophy, as traders weigh their title race edge against four remaining fixtures. Still alive in Champions League semi-finals after a gritty 1-1 first-leg draw at Atlético Madrid on April 29 amid penalty controversy, their unbeaten European run (8 wins in league phase) bolsters sentiment despite a mounting injury crisis sidelining Bukayo Saka (Achilles), Martin Ødegaard (knee), Declan Rice, and others. Elimination from FA Cup and Carabao Cup leaves only these paths, with recent Premier League wins sustaining momentum but key absences heightening upset risk.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arsenal is officially crowned the winner of at least one of the following competitions: the 2025–26 English Premier League, UEFA Champions League, Carabao Cup or FA Cup. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for Arsenal to win any of the four listed competitions (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from winning, or eliminated from, all four competitions), the market will immediately resolve to "No".

If one or more of the listed competitions is canceled or is otherwise not completed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the results of the listed competitions that have been completed at that time. If Arsenal has not won any listed competition by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the organizers of the listed competitions; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$267,770
End Date
May 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 15, 2026, 3:38 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arsenal is officially crowned the winner of at least one of the following competitions: the 2025–26 English Premier League, UEFA Champions League, Carabao Cup or FA Cup. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for Arsenal to win any of the four listed competitions (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from winning, or eliminated from, all four competitions), the market will immediately resolve to "No". If one or more of the listed competitions is canceled or is otherwise not completed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the results of the listed competitions that have been completed at that time. If Arsenal has not won any listed competition by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the organizers of the listed competitions; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 63% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 63¢, the market collectively assigns a 63% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?" has generated $267.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 15, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?" is 63% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 63% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.