Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.5% implied probability that Apple (AAPL) will beat Q2 FY2026 consensus estimates of $1.94 EPS and $109.7 billion in revenue—up 17% and 15% year-over-year—reflecting strong momentum from record Q1 revenue of $143.8 billion, China smartphone market share gains from #4 to #2 amid 20% shipment growth, and accelerating Services revenue projected near $30 billion at 76% gross margins. Recent upward revisions, including UBS price target hikes and whisper numbers exceeding consensus by 3-5%, underscore confidence in iPhone demand for the AI-focused cycle and 48-49% gross margin execution within Apple's guidance. Tail risks include softer-than-expected Greater China sales or tariff-impacted Q3 guidance during today's post-market release and 5 PM ET call, marking the first since John Ternus's CEO succession announcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$15,744 Vol.
$15,744 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$15,744 Vol.
$15,744 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
As of market creation, Apple is estimated to release earnings on April 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Apple's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.94 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.94 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Apple releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.5% implied probability that Apple (AAPL) will beat Q2 FY2026 consensus estimates of $1.94 EPS and $109.7 billion in revenue—up 17% and 15% year-over-year—reflecting strong momentum from record Q1 revenue of $143.8 billion, China smartphone market share gains from #4 to #2 amid 20% shipment growth, and accelerating Services revenue projected near $30 billion at 76% gross margins. Recent upward revisions, including UBS price target hikes and whisper numbers exceeding consensus by 3-5%, underscore confidence in iPhone demand for the AI-focused cycle and 48-49% gross margin execution within Apple's guidance. Tail risks include softer-than-expected Greater China sales or tariff-impacted Q3 guidance during today's post-market release and 5 PM ET call, marking the first since John Ternus's CEO succession announcement.
As of market creation, Apple is estimated to release earnings on April 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Apple's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.94 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.94 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Apple releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Apple releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Market Opened: Apr 17, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Volume
$15,744End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...As of market creation, Apple is estimated to release earnings on April 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Apple's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.94 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.94 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Apple releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.5% implied probability that Apple (AAPL) will beat Q2 FY2026 consensus estimates of $1.94 EPS and $109.7 billion in revenue—up 17% and 15% year-over-year—reflecting strong momentum from record Q1 revenue of $143.8 billion, China smartphone market share gains from #4 to #2 amid 20% shipment growth, and accelerating Services revenue projected near $30 billion at 76% gross margins. Recent upward revisions, including UBS price target hikes and whisper numbers exceeding consensus by 3-5%, underscore confidence in iPhone demand for the AI-focused cycle and 48-49% gross margin execution within Apple's guidance. Tail risks include softer-than-expected Greater China sales or tariff-impacted Q3 guidance during today's post-market release and 5 PM ET call, marking the first since John Ternus's CEO succession announcement.
As of market creation, Apple is estimated to release earnings on April 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Apple's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.94 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.94 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Apple releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Apple releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$15,744End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.5% implied probability that Apple (AAPL) will beat Q2 FY2026 consensus estimates of $1.94 EPS and $109.7 billion in revenue—up 17% and 15% year-over-year—reflecting strong momentum from record Q1 revenue of $143.8 billion, China smartphone market share gains from #4 to #2 amid 20% shipment growth, and accelerating Services revenue projected near $30 billion at 76% gross margins. Recent upward revisions, including UBS price target hikes and whisper numbers exceeding consensus by 3-5%, underscore confidence in iPhone demand for the AI-focused cycle and 48-49% gross margin execution within Apple's guidance. Tail risks include softer-than-expected Greater China sales or tariff-impacted Q3 guidance during today's post-market release and 5 PM ET call, marking the first since John Ternus's CEO succession announcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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